Calibrating Behavioral Parameters with Large Language Models
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01022v1
- Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2026 05:14:58 GMT
- Title: Calibrating Behavioral Parameters with Large Language Models
- Authors: Brandon Yee, Krishna Sharma,
- Abstract summary: Behavioral parameters such as loss aversion, herding, and extrapolation are central to asset pricing models.<n>We develop a framework that treats large language models (LLMs) as calibrated measurement instruments.
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Behavioral parameters such as loss aversion, herding, and extrapolation are central to asset pricing models but remain difficult to measure reliably. We develop a framework that treats large language models (LLMs) as calibrated measurement instruments for behavioral parameters. Using four models and 24{,}000 agent--scenario pairs, we document systematic rationality bias in baseline LLM behavior, including attenuated loss aversion, weak herding, and near-zero disposition effects relative to human benchmarks. Profile-based calibration induces large, stable, and theoretically coherent shifts in several parameters, with calibrated loss aversion, herding, extrapolation, and anchoring reaching or exceeding benchmark magnitudes. To assess external validity, we embed calibrated parameters in an agent-based asset pricing model, where calibrated extrapolation generates short-horizon momentum and long-horizon reversal patterns consistent with empirical evidence. Our results establish measurement ranges, calibration functions, and explicit boundaries for eight canonical behavioral biases.
Related papers
- MaP: A Unified Framework for Reliable Evaluation of Pre-training Dynamics [72.00014675808228]
Instability in Large Language Models evaluation process obscures true learning dynamics.<n>We introduce textbfMaP, a framework that integrates underlineMerging underlineand the underlinePass@k metric.<n>Experiments show that MaP yields significantly smoother performance curves, reduces inter-run variance, and ensures more consistent rankings.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-10T11:40:27Z) - Calibration Strategies for Robust Causal Estimation: Theoretical and Empirical Insights on Propensity Score-Based Estimators [0.6562256987706128]
partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators.<n>We extend recent advances in calibration techniques for propensity score estimation, improving the robustness of propensity scores in challenging settings.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-03-21T16:41:10Z) - Parametric $ρ$-Norm Scaling Calibration [8.583311125489942]
Output uncertainty indicates whether the probabilistic properties reflect objective characteristics of the model output.<n>We introduce a post-processing parametric calibration method, $rho$-Norm Scaling, which expands the calibrator expression and mitigates overconfidence due to excessive amplitude.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-12-19T10:42:11Z) - Multivariate root-n-consistent smoothing parameter free matching estimators and estimators of inverse density weighted expectations [51.000851088730684]
We develop novel modifications of nearest-neighbor and matching estimators which converge at the parametric $sqrt n $-rate.<n>We stress that our estimators do not involve nonparametric function estimators and in particular do not rely on sample-size dependent parameters smoothing.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-07-11T13:28:34Z) - Orthogonal Causal Calibration [55.28164682911196]
We develop general algorithms for reducing the task of causal calibration to that of calibrating a standard (non-causal) predictive model.<n>Our results are exceedingly general, showing that essentially any existing calibration algorithm can be used in causal settings.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-04T03:35:25Z) - Calibrating Large Language Models with Sample Consistency [76.23956851098598]
We explore the potential of deriving confidence from the distribution of multiple randomly sampled model generations, via three measures of consistency.
Results show that consistency-based calibration methods outperform existing post-hoc approaches.
We offer practical guidance on choosing suitable consistency metrics for calibration, tailored to the characteristics of various LMs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-02-21T16:15:20Z) - Distribution-Free Model-Agnostic Regression Calibration via
Nonparametric Methods [9.662269016653296]
We consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model.
Existing methods have been largely and lack of statistical guarantee in terms of individual calibration.
We propose simple nonparametric calibration methods that are agnostic of the underlying prediction model.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-05-20T21:31:51Z) - Training Normalizing Flows with the Precision-Recall Divergence [73.92251251511199]
We show that achieving a specified precision-recall trade-off corresponds to minimising -divergences from a family we call the em PR-divergences
We propose a novel generative model that is able to train a normalizing flow to minimise any -divergence, and in particular, achieve a given precision-recall trade-off.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-02-01T17:46:47Z) - Monotonicity and Double Descent in Uncertainty Estimation with Gaussian
Processes [52.92110730286403]
It is commonly believed that the marginal likelihood should be reminiscent of cross-validation metrics and that both should deteriorate with larger input dimensions.
We prove that by tuning hyper parameters, the performance, as measured by the marginal likelihood, improves monotonically with the input dimension.
We also prove that cross-validation metrics exhibit qualitatively different behavior that is characteristic of double descent.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-14T08:09:33Z) - Support estimation in high-dimensional heteroscedastic mean regression [2.07180164747172]
We consider a linear mean regression model with random design and potentially heteroscedastic, heavy-tailed errors.<n>We use a strictly convex, smooth variant of the Huber loss function with tuning parameter depending on the parameters of the problem.<n>For the resulting estimator we show sign-consistency and optimal rates of convergence in the $ell_infty$ norm.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-03T09:46:31Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.