Neural Network-Based Parameter Estimation of a Labour Market Agent-Based Model
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.15572v1
- Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:32:35 GMT
- Title: Neural Network-Based Parameter Estimation of a Labour Market Agent-Based Model
- Abstract summary: This study evaluates a state-of-the-art simulation-based inference framework that uses neural networks (NN) for parameter estimation.<n>The framework is applied to an established labour market agent-based modelling (ABM) based on job transition networks.
- Score: 1.7755852549928504
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a widespread approach to simulate complex systems. Advancements in computational processing and storage have facilitated the adoption of ABMs across many fields; however, ABMs face challenges that limit their use as decision-support tools. A significant issue is parameter estimation in large-scale ABMs, particularly due to computational constraints on exploring the parameter space. This study evaluates a state-of-the-art simulation-based inference (SBI) framework that uses neural networks (NN) for parameter estimation. This framework is applied to an established labour market ABM based on job transition networks. The ABM is initiated with synthetic datasets and the real U.S. labour market. Next, we compare the effectiveness of summary statistics derived from a list of statistical measures with that learned by an embedded NN. The results demonstrate that the NN-based approach recovers the original parameters when evaluating posterior distributions across various dataset scales and improves efficiency compared to traditional Bayesian methods.
Related papers
- Domain-driven Metrics for Reinforcement Learning: A Case Study on Epidemic Control using Agent-based Simulation [0.29360071145551064]
In this study, we are developing domain-driven metrics for RL, while building on state-of-the-art metrics.<n>Results show the use of domain-driven rewards in conjunction with traditional and state-of-the-art metrics for a few different simulation scenarios.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-08-07T08:40:19Z) - Taming Polysemanticity in LLMs: Provable Feature Recovery via Sparse Autoencoders [50.52694757593443]
Existing SAE training algorithms often lack rigorous mathematical guarantees and suffer from practical limitations.<n>We first propose a novel statistical framework for the feature recovery problem, which includes a new notion of feature identifiability.<n>We introduce a new SAE training algorithm based on bias adaptation'', a technique that adaptively adjusts neural network bias parameters to ensure appropriate activation sparsity.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-16T20:58:05Z) - A novel sensitivity analysis method for agent-based models stratifies in-silico tumor spheroid simulations [0.0]
Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used in biology to understand how individual actions scale into emergent population behavior.<n>Modelers employ sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms to quantify input parameters' impact on model outputs.<n>We develop the Simulate, Summarize, Reduce, Cluster, and Analyze (SSRCA) methodology, a machine-learning based pipeline designed to facilitate SA for ABMs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-30T19:12:45Z) - Modèles de Substitution pour les Modèles à base d'Agents : Enjeux, Méthodes et Applications [0.0]
Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study emergent phenomena arising from local interactions.<n>The complexity of ABM limits their feasibility for real-time decision-making and large-scale scenario analysis.<n>To address these limitations, surrogate models offer an efficient alternative by learning approximations from sparse simulation data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-17T08:55:33Z) - DSMoE: Matrix-Partitioned Experts with Dynamic Routing for Computation-Efficient Dense LLMs [86.76714527437383]
This paper proposes DSMoE, a novel approach that achieves sparsification by partitioning pre-trained FFN layers into computational blocks.<n>We implement adaptive expert routing using sigmoid activation and straight-through estimators, enabling tokens to flexibly access different aspects of model knowledge.<n>Experiments on LLaMA models demonstrate that under equivalent computational constraints, DSMoE achieves superior performance compared to existing pruning and MoE approaches.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-18T02:37:26Z) - Meta-Statistical Learning: Supervised Learning of Statistical Inference [59.463430294611626]
This work demonstrates that the tools and principles driving the success of large language models (LLMs) can be repurposed to tackle distribution-level tasks.<n>We propose meta-statistical learning, a framework inspired by multi-instance learning that reformulates statistical inference tasks as supervised learning problems.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-17T18:04:39Z) - The Lessons of Developing Process Reward Models in Mathematical Reasoning [62.165534879284735]
Process Reward Models (PRMs) aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes.<n>We develop a consensus filtering mechanism that effectively integrates Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with Large Language Models (LLMs)<n>We release a new state-of-the-art PRM that outperforms existing open-source alternatives.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-01-13T13:10:16Z) - Variational Inference of Parameters in Opinion Dynamics Models [9.51311391391997]
This work uses variational inference to estimate the parameters of an opinion dynamics ABM.
We transform the inference process into an optimization problem suitable for automatic differentiation.
Our approach estimates both macroscopic (bounded confidence intervals and backfire thresholds) and microscopic ($200$ categorical, agent-level roles) more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-03-08T14:45:18Z) - Online Variational Sequential Monte Carlo [49.97673761305336]
We build upon the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) method, which provides computationally efficient and accurate model parameter estimation and Bayesian latent-state inference.
Online VSMC is capable of performing efficiently, entirely on-the-fly, both parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-12-19T21:45:38Z) - Batch-Ensemble Stochastic Neural Networks for Out-of-Distribution
Detection [55.028065567756066]
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has recently received much attention from the machine learning community due to its importance in deploying machine learning models in real-world applications.
In this paper we propose an uncertainty quantification approach by modelling the distribution of features.
We incorporate an efficient ensemble mechanism, namely batch-ensemble, to construct the batch-ensemble neural networks (BE-SNNs) and overcome the feature collapse problem.
We show that BE-SNNs yield superior performance on several OOD benchmarks, such as the Two-Moons dataset, the FashionMNIST vs MNIST dataset, FashionM
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-06-26T16:00:22Z) - Neural Networks for Parameter Estimation in Intractable Models [0.0]
We show how to estimate parameters from max-stable processes, where inference is exceptionally challenging.
We use data from model simulations as input and train deep neural networks to learn statistical parameters.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-07-29T21:59:48Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.