Gaussian Mixture-Based Inverse Perception Contract for Uncertainty-Aware Robot Navigation
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.04329v1
- Date: Wed, 04 Mar 2026 17:48:18 GMT
- Title: Gaussian Mixture-Based Inverse Perception Contract for Uncertainty-Aware Robot Navigation
- Abstract summary: An inverse perception contract (IPC) provides such a connection by mapping estimates to sets that contain the ground truth with high confidence.<n>We introduce Gaussian Mixture-based Inverse Perception Contract (GM-IPC), which extends IPC to represent uncertainty with unions of ellipsoidal confidence sets.<n>We show that the resulting uncertainty characterizations can be leveraged in downstream planning frameworks for real-time safe navigation.
- Score: 14.159772216001954
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Reliable navigation in cluttered environments requires perception outputs that are not only accurate but also equipped with uncertainty sets suitable for safe control. An inverse perception contract (IPC) provides such a connection by mapping perceptual estimates to sets that contain the ground truth with high confidence. Existing IPC formulations, however, instantiate uncertainty as a single ellipsoidal set and rely on deterministic trust scores to guide robot motion. Such a representation cannot capture the multi-modal and irregular structure of fine-grained perception errors, often resulting in over-conservative sets and degraded navigation performance. In this work, we introduce Gaussian Mixture-based Inverse Perception Contract (GM-IPC), which extends IPC to represent uncertainty with unions of ellipsoidal confidence sets derived from Gaussian mixture models. This design moves beyond deterministic single-set abstractions, enabling fine-grained, multi-modal, and non-convex error structures to be captured with formal guarantees. A learning framework is presented that trains GM-IPC to account for probabilistic inclusion, distribution matching, and empty-space penalties, ensuring both validity and compactness of the predicted sets. We further show that the resulting uncertainty characterizations can be leveraged in downstream planning frameworks for real-time safe navigation, enabling less conservative and more adaptive robot motion while preserving safety in a probabilistic manner.
Related papers
- Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces [9.883377782603285]
We propose Calibrated Particle-sets for Trans-dimensional Uncertainty Representation (CaPTURe)<n>CaPTURe generates probabilistically valid prediction regions of the unknown future system configuration using particle-based models of arbitrary fidelity.<n>We evaluate our method on two simulated planning tasks: controlling a marble around a labyrinth and performing tight-tolerance peg-in-hole insertion with a manipulator.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-10T06:22:10Z) - CoCoNav: Conformal Control for Safe Robot Navigation in Crowds [12.172167017799502]
We propose textitCoNav, a crowd-navigation framework that combines online conformal calibration with runtime-certified planning.<n>A horizon-specific conformal proportional--integral controller adapts trajectory-error bounds to regulate long-run empirical coverage.<n>A textitrelax-then-verify planner preserves solver feasibility by generating nominal trajectories with soft-constrained MPC.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-08-07T20:34:52Z) - Conformal Changepoint Localization and Root Cause Analysis with Corrupted Observations [55.76952683833966]
This paper proposes weighted CONCH (W-CONCH) and weighted CROC (W-CROC) to reduce confidence set size when data may be corrupted.<n>Experiments on image-based and real-world changepoint and root-cause benchmarks show that uncertainty-based weighting substantially reduces confidence set size.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-07-29T05:16:59Z) - Distributed Motion Planning with Safety Guarantees for Self-Reconfiguring Robotic Boats [76.98547580312116]
This paper proposes a hybrid framework that combines distributed Model Predictive Control (MPC) with Control Barrier Functions (CBFs)<n>To ensure safety in real time, distributed CBF-based filters are applied to enforce inter-agent avoidance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-07-22T16:37:05Z) - Uncertainty-aware damage identification in short-span bridges via physics-informed variational autoencoder [0.4893345190925178]
This work proposes a physics-informed Gaussian copula variational autoencoder for structural health monitoring.<n>We replace the conventional independence assumption of latent variables with a Gaussian copula.<n>Results demonstrate that the PI-VAE accurately recovers the true posterior distribution, achieving 77.2% coverage.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-07-06T13:02:36Z) - AnchorMoE: Interpretable Time Series Classification via Anchor-Routed MoE [51.994752158953084]
AnchorMoE is an interpretable-by-construction classification framework.<n>It encodes multi-view representations of local patches and routes them to specialized experts.<n>Experiments on real-world and synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that AnchorMoE achieves highly competitive classification performance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-06-02T13:30:54Z) - Chance-Constrained MPPI under State and Dynamic Object Prediction Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Collision Risk Calibration [1.8352113484137627]
We propose a real-time, risk-aware planning architecture for autonomous navigation.<n>The framework integrates localization uncertainty via a one-tube Unscented Transform (UT) approximation and dynamic obstacle prediction uncertainty via Monte Carlo aggregation.<n>In highly cluttered environments, DUCCT-MPPI achieves superior robustness, outperforming established Monte Carlo MPPI baselines by nearly 28% in navigation success rate.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-05-27T11:32:05Z) - Provable Robustness against Backdoor Attacks via the Primal-Dual Perspective on Differential Privacy [51.758416625168]
Randomized smoothing is a powerful tool for certifying robustness to adversarial perturbations.<n>We propose a framework for certification of complex, composed mechanisms.<n>We provide a principled and general framework for using composite mechanisms to certify robustness under complex threat models.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-05-20T22:17:29Z) - Rethinking Gaussian Trajectory Predictors: Calibrated Uncertainty for Safe Planning [4.546517638153619]
Existing trajectory predictors primarily rely on the Negative Log-Likelihood loss, which is prone to predict over- or under-confident distributions.<n>This paper introduces a novel loss function for calibrating prediction uncertainty.<n>We show that our method significantly improves the reliability of confidence levels predicted by different State-Of-The-Art Gaussian trajectory predictors.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-03-11T04:42:49Z) - AmbShield: Enhancing Physical Layer Security with Ambient Backscatter Devices against Eavesdroppers [69.56534335936534]
AmbShield is an AmBD-assisted PLS scheme that leverages naturally distributed AmBDs to simultaneously strengthen the legitimate channel and degrade eavesdroppers'<n>In AmbShield, AmBDs are exploited as friendly jammers that randomly backscatter to create interference at eavesdroppers, and as passive relays that backscatter the desired signal to enhance the capacity of legitimate devices.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-01-14T20:56:50Z) - Lies We Can Trust: Quantifying Action Uncertainty with Inaccurate Stochastic Dynamics through Conformalized Nonholonomic Lie Groups [18.20843415651297]
Conformal Lie-group Action Prediction Sets is a symmetry-aware conformal prediction-based algorithm.<n>We rigorously analyze configuration errors using Lie groups, extending previous Euclidean Space theoretical guarantees to SE(2).<n>Our experiments on a simulated JetBot, and on a real MBot, suggest that our symmetry-informed nonconformity score leads to more volume-efficient prediction regions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-12-11T05:26:56Z) - Unsupervised Conformal Inference: Bootstrapping and Alignment to Control LLM Uncertainty [49.19257648205146]
We propose an unsupervised conformal inference framework for generation.<n>Our gates achieve close-to-nominal coverage and provide tighter, more stable thresholds than split UCP.<n>The result is a label-free, API-compatible gate for test-time filtering.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-26T23:40:47Z) - COIN: Uncertainty-Guarding Selective Question Answering for Foundation Models with Provable Risk Guarantees [51.5976496056012]
COIN is an uncertainty-guarding selection framework that calibrates statistically valid thresholds to filter a single generated answer per question.<n>COIN estimates the empirical error rate on a calibration set and applies confidence interval methods to establish a high-probability upper bound on the true error rate.<n>We demonstrate COIN's robustness in risk control, strong test-time power in retaining admissible answers, and predictive efficiency under limited calibration data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-25T07:04:49Z) - Distilling Calibration via Conformalized Credal Inference [30.8135853479509]
One way to enhance reliability is through uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference.<n>This paper introduces a low-complexity methodology to address this challenge by distilling calibration information from a more complex model.<n> Experiments on visual and language tasks demonstrate that the proposed approach, termed Conformalized Distillation for Credal Inference (CD-CI), significantly improves calibration performance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-01-10T15:57:23Z) - Probabilities Are Not Enough: Formal Controller Synthesis for Stochastic
Dynamical Models with Epistemic Uncertainty [68.00748155945047]
Capturing uncertainty in models of complex dynamical systems is crucial to designing safe controllers.
Several approaches use formal abstractions to synthesize policies that satisfy temporal specifications related to safety and reachability.
Our contribution is a novel abstraction-based controller method for continuous-state models with noise, uncertain parameters, and external disturbances.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-12T07:57:03Z) - Robustness and Accuracy Could Be Reconcilable by (Proper) Definition [109.62614226793833]
The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature.
We find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance.
By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-02-21T10:36:09Z) - Trust but Verify: Assigning Prediction Credibility by Counterfactual
Constrained Learning [123.3472310767721]
Prediction credibility measures are fundamental in statistics and machine learning.
These measures should account for the wide variety of models used in practice.
The framework developed in this work expresses the credibility as a risk-fit trade-off.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-24T19:52:38Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.