Process-Aware AI for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: A Mass-Conserving Neural Framework with Hydrological Process Constraints

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.25093v1
• Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2026 06:58:31 GMT
• Title: Process-Aware AI for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: A Mass-Conserving Neural Framework with Hydrological Process Constraints
• Abstract summary: Machine learning models can achieve high predictive accuracy in hydrological applications but often lack physical interpretability.<n>The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) provides a physics-aware artificial intelligence framework that enforces conservation principles.<n>We investigate how progressively embedding physically meaningful representations of hydrological processes within a single MCP storage unit improves predictive skill and interpretability in rainfall-runoff modeling.
• Score: 0.34287093027458554
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Machine learning models can achieve high predictive accuracy in hydrological applications but often lack physical interpretability. The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) provides a physics-aware artificial intelligence (AI) framework that enforces conservation principles while allowing hydrological process relationships to be learned from data. In this study, we investigate how progressively embedding physically meaningful representations of hydrological processes within a single MCP storage unit improves predictive skill and interpretability in rainfall-runoff modeling. Starting from a minimal MCP formulation, we sequentially introduce bounded soil storage, state-dependent conductivity, variable porosity, infiltration capacity, surface ponding, vertical drainage, and nonlinear water-table dynamics. The resulting hierarchy of process-aware MCP models is evaluated across 15 catchments spanning five hydroclimatic regions of the continental United States using daily streamflow prediction as the target. Results show that progressively augmenting the internal physical structure of the MCP unit generally improves predictive performance. The influence of these process representations is strongly hydroclimate dependent: vertical drainage substantially improves model skill in arid and snow-dominated basins but reduces performance in rainfall-dominated regions, while surface ponding has comparatively small effects. The best-performing MCP configurations approach the predictive skill of a Long Short-Term Memory benchmark while maintaining explicit physical interpretability. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrological process constraints within AI architectures provides a promising pathway toward interpretable and process-aware rainfall-runoff modeling.

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