A Cognitively Grounded Bayesian Framework for Misinformation Susceptibility

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09483v1
• Date: Sun, 10 May 2026 11:37:40 GMT
• Title: A Cognitively Grounded Bayesian Framework for Misinformation Susceptibility
• Abstract summary: Bounded Pragmatic Listener (or BPL) is a cognitively grounded Bayesian framework for modelling susceptibility to information disorder.<n>We test predictions about misinformation susceptibility, annotator disagreement, and the differential vulnerability to mis-, dis-, and mal-information as defined in the Information Disorder framework.
• Score: 5.985339810812376
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: In this (work in progress) paper, we present Bounded Pragmatic Listener (or BPL), a cognitively grounded Bayesian framework for modelling susceptibility to information disorder. BPL extends Rational Speech Act theory with three cognitively motivated bounds derived from the bounded rationality literature with a) a recursion depth bound (that emphasises working memory limits);b) a prior compression parameter (which is oriented at capturing information bottleneck); and c) an availability sample size (that operationalises importance sampling with saliency-weighted proposals). This allows us to test predictions about misinformation susceptibility, annotator disagreement, and the differential vulnerability to mis-, dis-, and mal-information as defined in the Information Disorder framework. We validate BPL on the LIAR and MultiFC benchmarks showcasing competitive veracity classification and experimental support for the depth-mismatch paradox.

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