FRESH: Information-Geometric Calibration of Patient-Level Models to Aggregate Evidence

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16246v1
• Date: Fri, 15 May 2026 17:50:11 GMT
• Title: FRESH: Information-Geometric Calibration of Patient-Level Models to Aggregate Evidence
• Abstract summary: Fresh is a method for incorporating population-level summary results into predictive models trained on patient-level data.<n>The method produces patient-level predictions from a re-calibrated model that matches a set of specified aggregate statistics for a target population.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: This note introduces FRESH (Fusion of Recent Evidence and Subject Histories), a method for incorporating population-level summary results -- published clinical trials, registry summaries, prior natural-history studies, and peer-reviewed indirect comparisons -- into predictive models trained on patient-level data. This method provides a principled means of combining both patient-level and aggregate-level data types into a unified data-efficient model for clinical decision making. FRESH assumes access to a generative model trained on patient-level data sources (e.g. clinical trial or real-world data). The method produces patient-level predictions from a re-calibrated model that matches a set of specified aggregate statistics for a target population. This can be understood as a patient-level recapitulation of the aggregate source -- with the key property that the recalibration is a minimal perturbation of the original joint distribution in a specific information-geometric sense. The resulting samples can be analyzed directly or combined into a post-training procedure to update the original generative model. This approach enables several applications where rigorously incorporating patient-level data with summary information is valuable, including (i) contextualizing single-arm trial results with respect to recent standard-of-care, (ii) clinical-trial simulations for design and probability-of-technical-success estimation, and (iii) comparative-effectiveness analyses of on-market therapies.

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