$Ω$: Operator-based Mixture Ensemble for Generative Assimilation

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20920v1
• Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:19:44 GMT
• Title: $Ω$: Operator-based Mixture Ensemble for Generative Assimilation
• Abstract summary: $$ is a scalable framework that integrates conditional Gaussian surrogate modeling, unsupervised score learning, and generative sampling.<n>$$ exploits closed-form conditional posterior distributions to analytically recover the high-dimensional unobserved component.<n>$$ is validated on several turbulent models with intermittency and extreme events, consistently improving posterior accuracy.
• Score: 7.915816961228985
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Characterizing non-Gaussian posterior distributions in partially observed high-dimensional nonlinear systems remains a fundamental challenge in data assimilation. Ensemble Kalman filters rely on Gaussian approximations that can be inaccurate for strongly non-Gaussian posteriors, whereas particle filters suffer from severe scalability limitations. Recent score-based generative approaches improve posterior characterization but typically require supervised training with ground-truth posterior samples, which are unavailable in most practical applications. We introduce $Ω$ (Operator-based Mixture Ensemble for Generative Assimilation), a scalable framework that integrates conditional Gaussian surrogate modeling, unsupervised score learning, and generative sampling. The conditional Gaussian surrogate provides a nonlinear non-Gaussian baseline approximation while admitting closed-form conditional posterior distributions for the unresolved variables. First, $Ω$ exploits these closed-form conditional distributions to analytically recover the high-dimensional unobserved component, reducing computational cost and mitigating the curse of dimensionality. Second, $Ω$ learns only the residual discrepancy beyond an analytical baseline through denoising score matching using ensemble trajectories alone, eliminating the need for ground-truth posterior samples and substantially reducing the learning burden. Third, $Ω$ reconstructs the full non-Gaussian posterior distribution of both observed and unobserved variables via a Gaussian mixture representation, capturing multimodal, skewed, and heavy-tailed statistics. Finally, $Ω$ employs annealed Langevin sampling to iteratively refine ensemble members from the baseline toward the target posterior. $Ω$ is validated on several turbulent models with intermittency and extreme events, consistently improving posterior accuracy.

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