Disentangling Model and Human Data Uncertainty in Apparent Facial Age Estimation
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16378v1
- Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:14:38 GMT
- Title: Disentangling Model and Human Data Uncertainty in Apparent Facial Age Estimation
- Abstract summary: Estimating the apparent age of individuals from facial images is challenging due to the subjective nature of perception and the inherent variability of the data.<n>We investigate the role of uncertainty estimation, attributing uncertainty jointly to a lack of knowledge (epistemic) or inherent noise/chance (aleatoric)
- Score: 8.169239405091819
- License: http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
- Abstract: Estimating the apparent age of individuals from facial images is challenging due to the subjective nature of perception and the inherent variability of the data. We investigate the role of uncertainty estimation, attributing uncertainty jointly to a lack of knowledge (epistemic) or inherent noise/chance (aleatoric). Leveraging the APPA-REAL dataset, we train Bayesian Neural Networks on datasets of varying sizes using three BNN approximations: MC-DropConnect, Flipout, and Deep Ensembles using supervision on human aleatoric uncertainty available in the APPA-REAL dataset. Each model outputs both the predicted apparent age and the amount of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Our results confirm the hypothesis that the inherent aleatoric uncertainty remains stable across dataset sizes, while epistemic uncertainty increases as training data decreases. These findings demonstrate that different sources of uncertainty can be quantified in face age estimation.
Related papers
- When Active Learning Fails, Uncalibrated Out of Distribution Uncertainty Quantification Might Be the Problem [2.3348738689737503]
Uncertainty estimation and calibration methods are evaluated for active learning campaigns in materials discovery.<n>Uncertainty calibration methods were found to variably generalize from in-domain data to out-of-domain data.<n>The impact of poor-quality uncertainty persists for random forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting models trained on the same data for the same tasks.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-11-21T20:17:46Z) - Cooperative Bayesian and variance networks disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties [0.0]
Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process.<n>Mean variance estimation (MVE) networks can learn this type of uncertainty but require ad-hoc regularization strategies to avoid overfitting.<n>We propose to train a variance network with a Bayesian neural network and demonstrate that the resulting model disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties while improving the mean estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-05T15:50:52Z) - One step closer to unbiased aleatoric uncertainty estimation [71.55174353766289]
We propose a new estimation method by actively de-noising the observed data.
By conducting a broad range of experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed approach provides a much closer approximation to the actual data uncertainty than the standard method.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-12-16T14:59:11Z) - Bayesian Networks for the robust and unbiased prediction of depression
and its symptoms utilizing speech and multimodal data [65.28160163774274]
We apply a Bayesian framework to capture the relationships between depression, depression symptoms, and features derived from speech, facial expression and cognitive game data collected at thymia.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-11-09T14:48:13Z) - Reliability-Aware Prediction via Uncertainty Learning for Person Image
Retrieval [51.83967175585896]
UAL aims at providing reliability-aware predictions by considering data uncertainty and model uncertainty simultaneously.
Data uncertainty captures the noise" inherent in the sample, while model uncertainty depicts the model's confidence in the sample's prediction.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-24T17:53:20Z) - Exploring Predictive Uncertainty and Calibration in NLP: A Study on the
Impact of Method & Data Scarcity [7.3372471678239215]
We assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data.
We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-20T15:42:02Z) - Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent
Variable Model [68.34559610536614]
We argue that the aleatoric uncertainty is an inherent attribute of the data and can only be correctly estimated with an unbiased oracle model.
We propose a new sampling and selection strategy at train time to approximate the oracle model for aleatoric uncertainty estimation.
Our results show that our solution achieves both accurate deterministic results and reliable uncertainty estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-22T08:54:10Z) - The Hidden Uncertainty in a Neural Networks Activations [105.4223982696279]
The distribution of a neural network's latent representations has been successfully used to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data.
This work investigates whether this distribution correlates with a model's epistemic uncertainty, thus indicating its ability to generalise to novel inputs.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-12-05T17:30:35Z) - UNITE: Uncertainty-based Health Risk Prediction Leveraging Multi-sourced
Data [81.00385374948125]
We present UNcertaInTy-based hEalth risk prediction (UNITE) model.
UNITE provides accurate disease risk prediction and uncertainty estimation leveraging multi-sourced health data.
We evaluate UNITE on real-world disease risk prediction tasks: nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NASH) and Alzheimer's disease (AD)
UNITE achieves up to 0.841 in F1 score for AD detection, up to 0.609 in PR-AUC for NASH detection, and outperforms various state-of-the-art baselines by up to $19%$ over the best baseline.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-10-22T02:28:11Z) - Uncertainty-Gated Stochastic Sequential Model for EHR Mortality
Prediction [6.170898159041278]
We present a novel variational recurrent network that estimates the distribution of missing variables, updates hidden states, and predicts the possibility of in-hospital mortality.
It is noteworthy that our model can conduct these procedures in a single stream and learn all network parameters jointly in an end-to-end manner.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-03-02T04:41:28Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.