Origins and mitigation of double descent in reduced order modeling

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2607.26414v1
• Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026 02:56:25 GMT
• Title: Origins and mitigation of double descent in reduced order modeling
• Abstract summary: We show that reconstruction risk curves demonstrate a diversity of patterns including a dramatic peak in error known as double descent.<n>We predict the detailed risk curves at a fraction of computational cost and provide regularization mechanisms to mitigate the instability.<n>We demonstrate results for both static reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature patterns and time integration of a reduced order model of a PDE.
• Score: 2.2029818765681077
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Latent low-dimensional structure in datasets of natural and engineered systems enables their sparse sensing, or full-state reconstruction from historical data and very few carefully chosen localized measurements. Depending on the reconstruction algorithm, sensor locations, and measurement noise, the reconstruction risk curves demonstrate a diversity of patterns including a dramatic peak in error known as double descent in Machine Learning literature. Here we explore those scenarios under a unified Data-Noise Averaging theory. Qualitatively, we formulate sufficient criteria for double descent to emerge through a catastrophic amplification of a pathological signal in reconstruction. Quantitatively, we predict the detailed risk curves at a fraction of computational cost, trace reconstruction instability to individual sensors and their combinations, and provide regularization mechanisms to mitigate the instability. We demonstrate results for both static reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature patterns and time integration of a reduced order model of a PDE.

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