Bootstrap validity in Bayesian semi-parametric models
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06670v1
- Date: Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:34:23 GMT
- Title: Bootstrap validity in Bayesian semi-parametric models
- Abstract summary: We discuss Bayesian inference on a low-dimensional targeted parameter in the presence of possibly complex nuisance components.<n>We relax the commonly deployed notion of equicontinuity and develop a framework leading to posterior inference with good frequentist properties.
- Score: 1.2891210250935148
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- Abstract: We discuss Bayesian inference on a low-dimensional targeted parameter in the presence of possibly highly complex nuisance components within the semi-parametric inference framework using an estimating function approach. We obtain a posterior distribution using non-parametric Bayesian methods through the Dirichlet process and the Bayesian bootstrap. We relax the commonly deployed notion of stochastic equicontinuity and develop a framework leading to posterior inference with good frequentist properties, specifically we demonstrate that the posterior distribution is asymptotically Normal and concentrates at the true value of the parameter. We emphasize the specific assumptions that are required to obtain these results, and how relaxing any of them alters the conclusions. We verify the analytical results in simulation.
Related papers
- Bayesian Semiparametric Causal Inference: Targeted Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effects [1.2833734915643464]
We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework.<n>Our method introduces a Bayesian debiasing procedure that corrects for bias arising from nuisance estimation.<n>Extensive simulations confirm the theoretical results, demonstrating accurate point estimation and credible intervals with nominal coverage.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-11-19T22:15:04Z) - Bayesian Inference for Left-Truncated Log-Logistic Distributions for Time-to-event Data Analysis [0.19999259391104385]
We propose a Bayesian approach for estimating the parameters of the left-truncated log-logistic (LTLL) distribution.<n>We show that it provides more stable and reliable parameter estimates, particularly when the likelihood surface is irregular due to left truncation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-21T23:10:07Z) - In-Context Parametric Inference: Point or Distribution Estimators? [66.22308335324239]
We show that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems.<n>Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-17T10:00:24Z) - Bayesian Circular Regression with von Mises Quasi-Processes [57.88921637944379]
In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions.<n>For posterior inference, we introduce a new Stratonovich-like augmentation that lends itself to fast Gibbs sampling.<n>We present experiments applying this model to the prediction of wind directions and the percentage of the running gait cycle as a function of joint angles.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-19T01:57:21Z) - Robust probabilistic inference via a constrained transport metric [8.85031165304586]
We offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted empirical likelihood carefully designed to concentrate near a parametric family of distributions.
The proposed approach finds applications in a wide variety of robust inference problems, where we intend to perform inference on the parameters associated with the centering distribution.
We demonstrate superior performance of our methodology when compared against state-of-the-art robust Bayesian inference methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-03-17T16:10:06Z) - Semiparametric inference using fractional posteriors [3.9599054392856483]
We show that fractional posterior credible sets can provide reliable semiparametric uncertainty quantification, but have inflated size.
We further propose a itshifted-and-rescaled fractional posterior set that is an efficient confidence set having optimal size under regularity conditions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-01-19T16:23:36Z) - Leveraging Global Parameters for Flow-based Neural Posterior Estimation [90.21090932619695]
Inferring the parameters of a model based on experimental observations is central to the scientific method.
A particularly challenging setting is when the model is strongly indeterminate, i.e., when distinct sets of parameters yield identical observations.
We present a method for cracking such indeterminacy by exploiting additional information conveyed by an auxiliary set of observations sharing global parameters.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-02-12T12:23:13Z) - Understanding Variational Inference in Function-Space [20.940162027560408]
We highlight some advantages and limitations of employing the Kullback-Leibler divergence in this setting.
We propose (featurized) Bayesian linear regression as a benchmark for function-space' inference methods that directly measures approximation quality.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-18T17:42:01Z) - Nonparametric Score Estimators [49.42469547970041]
Estimating the score from a set of samples generated by an unknown distribution is a fundamental task in inference and learning of probabilistic models.
We provide a unifying view of these estimators under the framework of regularized nonparametric regression.
We propose score estimators based on iterative regularization that enjoy computational benefits from curl-free kernels and fast convergence.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-05-20T15:01:03Z) - Efficiently Sampling Functions from Gaussian Process Posteriors [76.94808614373609]
We propose an easy-to-use and general-purpose approach for fast posterior sampling.
We demonstrate how decoupled sample paths accurately represent Gaussian process posteriors at a fraction of the usual cost.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-21T14:03:16Z) - Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization [56.69671152009899]
We show that deep ensembles provide an effective mechanism for approximate Bayesian marginalization.
We also propose a related approach that further improves the predictive distribution by marginalizing within basins of attraction.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-02-20T15:13:27Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.