Predicting Risk of Developing Diabetic Retinopathy using Deep Learning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2008.04370v1
• Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2020 19:07:22 GMT
• Title: Predicting Risk of Developing Diabetic Retinopathy using Deep Learning
• Authors: Ashish Bora, Siva Balasubramanian, Boris Babenko, Sunny Virmani, Subhashini Venugopalan, Akinori Mitani, Guilherme de Oliveira Marinho, Jorge Cuadros, Paisan Ruamviboonsuk, Greg S Corrado, Lily Peng, Dale R Webster, Avinash V Varadarajan, Naama Hammel, Yun Liu, Pinal Bavishi
• Abstract summary: Risk stratification for the development of diabetic retinopathy may help optimize screening intervals to reduce costs while improving vision outcomes. We created and validated two versions of a deep learning system (DLS) to predict the development of mild-worse ("Mild+") DR in diabetic patients undergoing DR screening.
• Score: 6.200560025035929
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening is instrumental in preventing blindness, but faces a scaling challenge as the number of diabetic patients rises. Risk stratification for the development of DR may help optimize screening intervals to reduce costs while improving vision-related outcomes. We created and validated two versions of a deep learning system (DLS) to predict the development of mild-or-worse ("Mild+") DR in diabetic patients undergoing DR screening. The two versions used either three-fields or a single field of color fundus photographs (CFPs) as input. The training set was derived from 575,431 eyes, of which 28,899 had known 2-year outcome, and the remaining were used to augment the training process via multi-task learning. Validation was performed on both an internal validation set (set A; 7,976 eyes; 3,678 with known outcome) and an external validation set (set B; 4,762 eyes; 2,345 with known outcome). For predicting 2-year development of DR, the 3-field DLS had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95%CI, 0.78-0.81) on validation set A. On validation set B (which contained only a single field), the 1-field DLS's AUC was 0.70 (95%CI, 0.67-0.74). The DLS was prognostic even after adjusting for available risk factors (p<0.001). When added to the risk factors, the 3-field DLS improved the AUC from 0.72 (95%CI, 0.68-0.76) to 0.81 (95%CI, 0.77-0.84) in validation set A, and the 1-field DLS improved the AUC from 0.62 (95%CI, 0.58-0.66) to 0.71 (95%CI, 0.68-0.75) in validation set B. The DLSs in this study identified prognostic information for DR development from CFPs. This information is independent of and more informative than the available risk factors.

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