Forecasting elections results via the voter model with stubborn nodes

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.10627v3
• Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2021 12:10:33 GMT
• Title: Forecasting elections results via the voter model with stubborn nodes
• Authors: Antoine Vendeville and Benjamin Guedj and Shi Zhou
• Abstract summary: We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election.
• Score: 7.9603223299524535
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours. We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election. We obtain a mean absolute error of 4.74\%. As a side product, our parameters estimates provide meaningful insight on the political landscape, informing us on the proportion of voters that are strong supporters of each of the considered parties.

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