Short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation using Gaussian
process regression
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.02275v1
- Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2020 18:35:25 GMT
- Title: Short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation using Gaussian
process regression
- Authors: Yahya Al Lawati, Jack Kelly, and Dan Stowell
- Abstract summary: This paper focuses on evaluating predictions of the energy generated by PV systems in the United Kingdom.
The model is evaluated for short-term forecasts of 48 hours against three main factors.
We also compare very short-term forecasts in terms of cloud coverage within the prediction period and only initial cloud coverage as a predictor.
- Score: 3.8386504037654534
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) power is affected by weather conditions, making the power
generated from the PV systems uncertain. Solving this problem would help
improve the reliability and cost effectiveness of the grid, and could help
reduce reliance on fossil fuel plants. The present paper focuses on evaluating
predictions of the energy generated by PV systems in the United Kingdom
Gaussian process regression (GPR). Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian
non-parametric model that can provide predictions along with the uncertainty in
the predicted value, which can be very useful in applications with a high
degree of uncertainty. The model is evaluated for short-term forecasts of 48
hours against three main factors -- training period, sky area coverage and
kernel model selection -- and for very short-term forecasts of four hours
against sky area. We also compare very short-term forecasts in terms of cloud
coverage within the prediction period and only initial cloud coverage as a
predictor.
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