AttDMM: An Attentive Deep Markov Model for Risk Scoring in Intensive
Care Units
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04702v1
- Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2021 08:44:31 GMT
- Title: AttDMM: An Attentive Deep Markov Model for Risk Scoring in Intensive
Care Units
- Authors: Yilmazcan \"Ozyurt, Mathias Kraus, Tobias Hatt, Stefan Feuerriegel
- Abstract summary: We propose a novel generative deep probabilistic model for real-time risk scoring in ICUs.
To the best of our knowledge, AttDMM is the first ICU prediction model that jointly learns both long-term disease dynamics (via attention) and different disease states in health trajectory.
Our model shows a path towards identifying patients at risk so that health practitioners can intervene early and save patient lives.
- Score: 20.96242356493069
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Clinical practice in intensive care units (ICUs) requires early warnings when
a patient's condition is about to deteriorate so that preventive measures can
be undertaken. To this end, prediction algorithms have been developed that
estimate the risk of mortality in ICUs. In this work, we propose a novel
generative deep probabilistic model for real-time risk scoring in ICUs.
Specifically, we develop an attentive deep Markov model called AttDMM. To the
best of our knowledge, AttDMM is the first ICU prediction model that jointly
learns both long-term disease dynamics (via attention) and different disease
states in health trajectory (via a latent variable model). Our evaluations were
based on an established baseline dataset (MIMIC-III) with 53,423 ICU stays. The
results confirm that compared to state-of-the-art baselines, our AttDMM was
superior: AttDMM achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic
curve (AUROC) of 0.876, which yielded an improvement over the state-of-the-art
method by 2.2%. In addition, the risk score from the AttDMM provided warnings
several hours earlier. Thereby, our model shows a path towards identifying
patients at risk so that health practitioners can intervene early and save
patient lives.
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