Towards More Fine-grained and Reliable NLP Performance Prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2102.05486v1
• Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2021 15:23:20 GMT
• Title: Towards More Fine-grained and Reliable NLP Performance Prediction
• Authors: Zihuiwen Ye, Pengfei Liu, Jinlan Fu, Graham Neubig
• Abstract summary: We make two contributions to improving performance prediction for NLP tasks. First, we examine performance predictors for holistic measures of accuracy like F1 or BLEU. Second, we propose methods to understand the reliability of a performance prediction model from two angles: confidence intervals and calibration.
• Score: 85.78131503006193
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Performance prediction, the task of estimating a system's performance without performing experiments, allows us to reduce the experimental burden caused by the combinatorial explosion of different datasets, languages, tasks, and models. In this paper, we make two contributions to improving performance prediction for NLP tasks. First, we examine performance predictors not only for holistic measures of accuracy like F1 or BLEU but also fine-grained performance measures such as accuracy over individual classes of examples. Second, we propose methods to understand the reliability of a performance prediction model from two angles: confidence intervals and calibration. We perform an analysis of four types of NLP tasks, and both demonstrate the feasibility of fine-grained performance prediction and the necessity to perform reliability analysis for performance prediction methods in the future. We make our code publicly available: \url{https://github.com/neulab/Reliable-NLPPP}

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