Improving Deterministic Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning for Classification and Regression

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11409v1
• Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2021 23:29:12 GMT
• Title: Improving Deterministic Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning for Classification and Regression
• Authors: Joost van Amersfoort, Lewis Smith, Andrew Jesson, Oscar Key, Yarin Gal
• Abstract summary: We propose a new model that estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass. Our approach combines a bi-Lipschitz feature extractor with an inducing point approximate Gaussian process, offering robust and principled uncertainty estimation.
• Score: 30.112634874443494
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: We propose a new model that estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass and works on both classification and regression problems. Our approach combines a bi-Lipschitz feature extractor with an inducing point approximate Gaussian process, offering robust and principled uncertainty estimation. This can be seen as a refinement of Deep Kernel Learning (DKL), with our changes allowing DKL to match softmax neural networks accuracy. Our method overcomes the limitations of previous work addressing deterministic uncertainty quantification, such as the dependence of uncertainty on ad hoc hyper-parameters. Our method matches SotA accuracy, 96.2% on CIFAR-10, while maintaining the speed of softmax models, and provides uncertainty estimates that outperform previous single forward pass uncertainty models. Finally, we demonstrate our method on a recently introduced benchmark for uncertainty in regression: treatment deferral in causal models for personalized medicine.

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