Root-finding Approaches for Computing Conformal Prediction Set

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2104.06648v1
• Date: Wed, 14 Apr 2021 06:41:12 GMT
• Title: Root-finding Approaches for Computing Conformal Prediction Set
• Authors: Eugene Ndiaye and Ichiro Takeuchi
• Abstract summary: Conformal prediction constructs a confidence region for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations. We exploit the fact that, emphoften, conformal prediction sets are intervals whose boundaries can be efficiently approximated by classical root-finding software.
• Score: 18.405645120971496
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Conformal prediction constructs a confidence region for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal level without additional assumptions on their distribution. However, it requires a refitting procedure for all replacement candidates of the target response. In regression settings, this corresponds to an infinite number of model fit. Apart from relatively simple estimators that can be written as pieces of linear function of the response, efficiently computing such sets is difficult and is still considered as an open problem. We exploit the fact that, \emph{often}, conformal prediction sets are intervals whose boundaries can be efficiently approximated by classical root-finding software. We investigate how this approach can overcome many limitations of formerly used strategies and achieves calculations that have been unattainable so far. We discuss its complexity as well as its drawbacks and evaluate its efficiency through numerical experiments.

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