Election Polarization: Mapping citizen divisions through elections
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2308.10862v1
- Date: Wed, 16 Aug 2023 18:06:00 GMT
- Title: Election Polarization: Mapping citizen divisions through elections
- Authors: Carlos Navarrete and Mariana Macedo and Viktor Stojkoski and Marcela
Parada
- Abstract summary: We examine the concept of Election Polarization as a measure of citizens' divisions on Election Day.
We use both synthetic data and presidential election results from France, Chile, and the United States.
We validate its robustness over the election type, aggregation scale, use of abstentions/spoilt votes, and the number of candidates.
- Score: 0.21847754147782888
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Elections can unveil citizens' enthusiasm and discomfort concerning political
candidates, parties, and issues. While a substantial body of literature studies
the election outcomes from the perspective of winners and losers, an
under-explored condition to understand societal divisions emerges from citizen
voting patterns. Here, we examine the concept of Election Polarization (EP) as
a measure of citizens' divisions on Election Day. We present an agnostic
approach that relies exclusively on election data and considers the
competitiveness of candidates (Between-EP) and their voting dispersion
throughout a territory (Within-EP). We use both synthetic data and presidential
election results from France, Chile, and the United States to show that our
approach successfully identified theoretical expectations of ``polarized''
elections. Furthermore, we validate its robustness over the election type,
aggregation scale, use of abstentions/spoilt votes, and the number of
candidates. Finally, our analysis reveals that state-level Within-EP and
Between-EP in the U.S. are positively associated with political polarization
and political interest, respectively, shedding light that EP could potentially
encompass a simple and reliable measure of quasi-political polarization,
opening the opportunity of studying this phenomenon both for regional level and
lower/middle-income countries without electoral surveys.
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