Test-Time Compensated Representation Learning for Extreme Traffic Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.09074v1
• Date: Sat, 16 Sep 2023 18:46:34 GMT
• Title: Test-Time Compensated Representation Learning for Extreme Traffic Forecasting
• Authors: Zhiwei Zhang and Weizhong Zhang and Yaowei Huang and Kani Chen
• Abstract summary: congestion and rush hours can result in low correlation in vehicle speeds at various intersections during adjacent time periods. Existing methods generally predict future series based on recent and entirely decomposed training data during the testing phase. We propose a test-time representation learning framework comprising a multi-head spatial spatial transformer model.
• Score: 13.859278899032846
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Traffic forecasting is a challenging task due to the complex spatio-temporal correlations among traffic series. In this paper, we identify an underexplored problem in multivariate traffic series prediction: extreme events. Road congestion and rush hours can result in low correlation in vehicle speeds at various intersections during adjacent time periods. Existing methods generally predict future series based on recent observations and entirely discard training data during the testing phase, rendering them unreliable for forecasting highly nonlinear multivariate time series. To tackle this issue, we propose a test-time compensated representation learning framework comprising a spatio-temporal decomposed data bank and a multi-head spatial transformer model (CompFormer). The former component explicitly separates all training data along the temporal dimension according to periodicity characteristics, while the latter component establishes a connection between recent observations and historical series in the data bank through a spatial attention matrix. This enables the CompFormer to transfer robust features to overcome anomalous events while using fewer computational resources. Our modules can be flexibly integrated with existing forecasting methods through end-to-end training, and we demonstrate their effectiveness on the METR-LA and PEMS-BAY benchmarks. Extensive experimental results show that our method is particularly important in extreme events, and can achieve significant improvements over six strong baselines, with an overall improvement of up to 28.2%.

Related papers

• MGCP: A Multi-Grained Correlation based Prediction Network for Multivariate Time Series [54.91026286579748]
  We propose a Multi-Grained Correlations-based Prediction Network. It simultaneously considers correlations at three levels to enhance prediction performance. It employs adversarial training with an attention mechanism-based predictor and conditional discriminator to optimize prediction results at coarse-grained level.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-05-30T03:32:44Z)
• Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction [53.637837706712794]
  Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. We introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction against varying observation periods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-03-31T17:18:57Z)
• Graph Spatiotemporal Process for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection with Missing Values [67.76168547245237]
  We introduce a novel framework called GST-Pro, which utilizes a graphtemporal process and anomaly scorer to detect anomalies. Our experimental results show that the GST-Pro method can effectively detect anomalies in time series data and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-01-11T10:10:16Z)
• Laplacian Convolutional Representation for Traffic Time Series Imputation [27.525490099749383]
  We introduce a Laplacian kernel to temporal regularization for characterizing local trends in traffic time series. We develop a low-rank Laplacian convolutional representation (LCR) model by putting the circulant matrix nuclear norm and the Laplacian kernelized temporal regularization. We demonstrate the superiority of LCR over several baseline models for imputing traffic time series of various time series behaviors.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-12-03T04:08:56Z)
• Multi-scale Attention Flow for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting [68.20798558048678]
  We propose a novel non-autoregressive deep learning model, called Multi-scale Attention Normalizing Flow(MANF) Our model avoids the influence of cumulative error and does not increase the time complexity. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on many popular multivariate datasets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-05-16T07:53:42Z)
• Accurate non-stationary short-term traffic flow prediction method [0.0]
  This paper proposes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based method that can forecast short-term traffic flow precisely. The proposed method performs favorably against other state-of-the-art methods with better performance on extreme outliers, delay effects, and trend-changing responses.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-05-01T17:11:34Z)
• Learning spatiotemporal features from incomplete data for traffic flow prediction using hybrid deep neural networks [0.28675177318965034]
  This study focuses on hybrid deep neural networks to predict traffic flow in the California Freeway Performance Measurement System (PeMS) with missing values. Various architecture configurations with series and parallel connections are considered based on RNNs and CNNs. A comprehensive analysis performed on two different datasets from PeMS indicates that the proposed series-parallel hybrid network with the mean imputation technique achieves the lowest error in predicting the traffic flow.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-04-21T15:57:08Z)
• TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series [76.71406465526454]
  estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. We propose a versatile method that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder. We show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on several real-world datasets.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-02-07T21:37:29Z)
• SMART: Simultaneous Multi-Agent Recurrent Trajectory Prediction [72.37440317774556]
  We propose advances that address two key challenges in future trajectory prediction. multimodality in both training data and predictions and constant time inference regardless of number of agents.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-07-26T08:17:10Z)
• Traffic congestion anomaly detection and prediction using deep learning [6.370406399003785]
  Congestion prediction is a major priority for traffic management centres around the world to ensure timely incident response handling. The increasing amounts of generated traffic data have been used to train machine learning predictors for traffic, but this is a challenging task due to inter-dependencies of traffic flow both in time and space. We show that our deep learning models consistently outperform traditional methods, and we conduct a comparative analysis of the optimal time horizon of historical data required to predict traffic flow at different time points in the future.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-06-23T08:49:46Z)
• Long-Short Term Spatiotemporal Tensor Prediction for Passenger Flow Profile [15.875569404476495]
  We focus on a tensor-based prediction and propose several practical techniques to improve prediction. For long-term prediction specifically, we propose the "Tensor Decomposition + 2-Dimensional Auto-Regressive Moving Average (2D-ARMA)" model. For short-term prediction, we propose to conduct tensor completion based on tensor clustering to avoid oversimplifying and ensure accuracy.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-04-23T08:30:00Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.