Natural Counterfactuals With Necessary Backtracking

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01607v3
• Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 23:53:11 GMT
• Title: Natural Counterfactuals With Necessary Backtracking
• Authors: Guang-Yuan Hao, Jiji Zhang, Biwei Huang, Hao Wang, Kun Zhang,
• Abstract summary: Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, but its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires too much deviation from the observed scenarios to be feasible. We propose a framework of emphnatural counterfactuals and a method for generating counterfactuals that are more feasible with respect to the actual data distribution.
• Score: 21.845725763657022
• License:
• Abstract: Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires too much deviation from the observed scenarios to be feasible, as we show using simple examples. To mitigate this difficulty, we propose a framework of \emph{natural counterfactuals} and a method for generating counterfactuals that are more feasible with respect to the actual data distribution. Our methodology incorporates a certain amount of backtracking when needed, allowing changes in causally preceding variables to minimize deviations from realistic scenarios. Specifically, we introduce a novel optimization framework that permits but also controls the extent of backtracking with a naturalness criterion. Empirical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/GuangyuanHao/natural_counterfactuals.

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