A Scalable and Transferable Time Series Prediction Framework for Demand Forecasting

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2402.19402v1
• Date: Thu, 29 Feb 2024 18:01:07 GMT
• Title: A Scalable and Transferable Time Series Prediction Framework for Demand Forecasting
• Authors: Young-Jin Park, Donghyun Kim, Fr\'ed\'eric Odermatt, Juho Lee, Kyung-Min Kim
• Abstract summary: Time series forecasting is one of the most essential and ubiquitous tasks in many business problems. We propose Forecasting orchestra (Forchestra), a simple but powerful framework capable of accurately predicting future demand for a diverse range of items.
• Score: 24.06534393565697
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Time series forecasting is one of the most essential and ubiquitous tasks in many business problems, including demand forecasting and logistics optimization. Traditional time series forecasting methods, however, have resulted in small models with limited expressive power because they have difficulty in scaling their model size up while maintaining high accuracy. In this paper, we propose Forecasting orchestra (Forchestra), a simple but powerful framework capable of accurately predicting future demand for a diverse range of items. We empirically demonstrate that the model size is scalable to up to 0.8 billion parameters. The proposed method not only outperforms existing forecasting models with a significant margin, but it could generalize well to unseen data points when evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on downstream datasets. Last but not least, we present extensive qualitative and quantitative studies to analyze how the proposed model outperforms baseline models and differs from conventional approaches. The original paper was presented as a full paper at ICDM 2022 and is available at: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10027662.

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