Online model error correction with neural networks: application to the Integrated Forecasting System

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2403.03702v1
• Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2024 13:36:31 GMT
• Title: Online model error correction with neural networks: application to the Integrated Forecasting System
• Authors: Alban Farchi, Marcin Chrust, Marc Bocquet, Massimo Bonavita
• Abstract summary: We develop a model error correction for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using a neural network. The network is pre-trained offline using a large dataset of operational analyses and analysis increments. It is then integrated into the IFS within the Object-Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) so as to be used in data assimilation and forecast experiments.
• Score: 0.27930367518472443
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: In recent years, there has been significant progress in the development of fully data-driven global numerical weather prediction models. These machine learning weather prediction models have their strength, notably accuracy and low computational requirements, but also their weakness: they struggle to represent fundamental dynamical balances, and they are far from being suitable for data assimilation experiments. Hybrid modelling emerges as a promising approach to address these limitations. Hybrid models integrate a physics-based core component with a statistical component, typically a neural network, to enhance prediction capabilities. In this article, we propose to develop a model error correction for the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using a neural network. The neural network is initially pre-trained offline using a large dataset of operational analyses and analysis increments. Subsequently, the trained network is integrated into the IFS within the Object-Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) so as to be used in data assimilation and forecast experiments. It is then further trained online using a recently developed variant of weak-constraint 4D-Var. The results show that the pre-trained neural network already provides a reliable model error correction, which translates into reduced forecast errors in many conditions and that the online training further improves the accuracy of the hybrid model in many conditions.

Related papers

• An Investigation on Machine Learning Predictive Accuracy Improvement and Uncertainty Reduction using VAE-based Data Augmentation [2.517043342442487]
  Deep generative learning uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-24T18:15:48Z)
• On conditional diffusion models for PDE simulations [53.01911265639582]
  We study score-based diffusion models for forecasting and assimilation of sparse observations. We propose an autoregressive sampling approach that significantly improves performance in forecasting. We also propose a new training strategy for conditional score-based models that achieves stable performance over a range of history lengths.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-21T18:31:04Z)
• Generalizing Weather Forecast to Fine-grained Temporal Scales via Physics-AI Hybrid Modeling [55.13352174687475]
  This paper proposes a physics-AI hybrid model (i.e., WeatherGFT) which Generalizes weather forecasts to Finer-grained Temporal scales. Specifically, we employ a carefully designed PDE kernel to simulate physical evolution on a small time scale. We introduce a lead time-aware training framework to promote the generalization of the model at different lead times.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-05-22T16:21:02Z)
• Epistemic Modeling Uncertainty of Rapid Neural Network Ensembles for Adaptive Learning [0.0]
  A new type of neural network is presented using the rapid neural network paradigm. It is found that the proposed emulator embedded neural network trains near-instantaneously, typically without loss of prediction accuracy.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-12T22:34:34Z)
• Learning Sample Difficulty from Pre-trained Models for Reliable Prediction [55.77136037458667]
  We propose to utilize large-scale pre-trained models to guide downstream model training with sample difficulty-aware entropy regularization. We simultaneously improve accuracy and uncertainty calibration across challenging benchmarks.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-04-20T07:29:23Z)
• Online Evolutionary Neural Architecture Search for Multivariate Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting [72.89994745876086]
  This work presents the Online Neuro-Evolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm. ONE-NAS is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-02-20T22:25:47Z)
• Online model error correction with neural networks in the incremental 4D-Var framework [0.0]
  We develop a new weak-constraint 4D-Var formulation which can be used to train a neural network for online model error correction. The method is implemented in the ECMWF Object-Oriented Prediction System. The results confirm that online learning is effective and yields a more accurate model error correction than offline learning.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-10-25T07:45:33Z)
• An advanced spatio-temporal convolutional recurrent neural network for storm surge predictions [73.4962254843935]
  We study the capability of artificial neural network models to emulate storm surge based on the storm track/size/intensity history. This study presents a neural network model that can predict storm surge, informed by a database of synthetic storm simulations.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-04-18T23:42:18Z)
• Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks for Accurate Long-range Forecasting [6.295157260756792]
  We introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN) PARNN is capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. We evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-04-01T17:57:36Z)
• Improving Uncertainty Calibration via Prior Augmented Data [56.88185136509654]
  Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. They are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated probabilistic predictions. We propose a solution by seeking out regions of feature space where the model is unjustifiably overconfident, and conditionally raising the entropy of those predictions towards that of the prior distribution of the labels.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-02-22T07:02:37Z)
• A comprehensive study on the prediction reliability of graph neural networks for virtual screening [0.0]
  We investigate the effects of model architectures, regularization methods, and loss functions on the prediction performance and reliability of classification results. Our result highlights that correct choice of regularization and inference methods is evidently important to achieve high success rate.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2020-03-17T10:13:31Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.