Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2404.08168v1
• Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2024 00:21:30 GMT
• Title: Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification
• Authors: Etash Guha, Shlok Natarajan, Thomas Möllenhoff, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Eugene Ndiaye,
• Abstract summary: We convert regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression. Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.
• Score: 15.746085775084238
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

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