Long-Term Prediction Accuracy Improvement of Data-Driven Medium-Range Global Weather Forecast

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.01598v1
• Date: Wed, 26 Jun 2024 02:06:27 GMT
• Title: Long-Term Prediction Accuracy Improvement of Data-Driven Medium-Range Global Weather Forecast
• Authors: Yifan Hu, Fukang Yin, Weimin Zhang, Kaijun Ren, Junqiang Song, Kefeng Deng, Di Zhang,
• Abstract summary: A universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.
• Score: 5.284452133959932
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Long-term stability stands as a crucial requirement in data-driven medium-range global weather forecasting. Spectral bias is recognized as the primary contributor to instabilities, as data-driven methods difficult to learn small-scale dynamics. In this paper, we reveal that the universal mechanism for these instabilities is not only related to spectral bias but also to distortions brought by processing spherical data using conventional convolution. These distortions lead to a rapid amplification of errors over successive long-term iterations, resulting in a significant decline in forecast accuracy. To address this issue, a universal neural operator called the Spherical Harmonic Neural Operator (SHNO) is introduced to improve long-term iterative forecasts. SHNO uses the spherical harmonic basis to mitigate distortions for spherical data and uses gated residual spectral attention (GRSA) to correct spectral bias caused by spurious correlations across different scales. The effectiveness and merit of the proposed method have been validated through its application for spherical Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) and medium-range global weather forecasting. Our findings highlight the benefits and potential of SHNO to improve the accuracy of long-term prediction.

Related papers

• HR-Extreme: A High-Resolution Dataset for Extreme Weather Forecasting [12.561873438789242]
  This study introduces a comprehensive dataset that incorporates high-resolution extreme weather cases. We evaluate the current state-of-the-art deep learning models and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems on HR-Extreme.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-09-27T16:20:51Z)
• Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting for Urban Flow Prediction [75.24539704456791]
  Urban flow prediction is a nuanced-temporal modeling that estimates the throughput of transportation services like buses, taxis and ride-driven models. Some recent prediction solutions bring remedies with the notion of physics-guided machine learning (PGML) We develop a atized physics-guided network (PN), and propose a data-aware framework Physics-guided Active Sample Reweighting (P-GASR)
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-07-18T15:44:23Z)
• Leveraging data-driven weather models for improving numerical weather prediction skill through large-scale spectral nudging [1.747339718564314]
  This study illustrates the relative strengths and weaknesses of physics-based and AI-based approaches to weather prediction. A hybrid NWP-AI system is proposed, wherein GEM-predicted large-scale state variables are spectrally nudged toward GraphCast predictions. Results indicate that this hybrid approach is capable of leveraging the strengths of GraphCast to enhance the prediction skill of the GEM model.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-07-08T16:39:25Z)
• ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast [57.6987191099507]
  We introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. We also introduce ExBooster, which captures the uncertainty in prediction outcomes by employing multiple random samples. Our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-02-02T10:34:13Z)
• A PAC-Bayesian Perspective on the Interpolating Information Criterion [54.548058449535155]
  We show how a PAC-Bayes bound is obtained for a general class of models, characterizing factors which influence performance in the interpolating regime. We quantify how the test error for overparameterized models achieving effectively zero training error depends on the quality of the implicit regularization imposed by e.g. the combination of model, parameter-initialization scheme.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-11-13T01:48:08Z)
• Long-term drought prediction using deep neural networks based on geospatial weather data [75.38539438000072]
  High-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. We tackle drought data by introducing an end-to-end approach that adopts a systematic end-to-end approach. Key findings are the exceptional performance of a Transformer model, EarthFormer, in making accurate short-term (up to six months) forecasts.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-09-12T13:28:06Z)
• DeepVol: Volatility Forecasting from High-Frequency Data with Dilated Causal Convolutions [53.37679435230207]
  We propose DeepVol, a model based on Dilated Causal Convolutions that uses high-frequency data to forecast day-ahead volatility. Our empirical results suggest that the proposed deep learning-based approach effectively learns global features from high-frequency data.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-09-23T16:13:47Z)
• Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks for Accurate Long-range Forecasting [6.295157260756792]
  We introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN) PARNN is capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. We evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-04-01T17:57:36Z)
• Meta-Forecasting by combining Global DeepRepresentations with Local Adaptation [12.747008878068314]
  We introduce a novel forecasting method called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR) It adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-11-05T11:45:02Z)
• Real-time gravitational-wave science with neural posterior estimation [64.67121167063696]
  We demonstrate unprecedented accuracy for rapid gravitational-wave parameter estimation with deep learning. We analyze eight gravitational-wave events from the first LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We find very close quantitative agreement with standard inference codes, but with inference times reduced from O(day) to a minute per event.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-06-23T18:00:05Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.