Is Score Matching Suitable for Estimating Point Processes?
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.04037v1
- Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2024 05:10:20 GMT
- Title: Is Score Matching Suitable for Estimating Point Processes?
- Authors: Haoqun Cao, Zizhuo Meng, Tianjun Ke, Feng Zhou,
- Abstract summary: Some existing works have proposed score matching estimators for point processes.
This work introduces the weighted score matching estimator to point processes.
Experimental results indicate that our estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic data and yields results consistent with MLE on real data.
- Score: 3.496184112204039
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Score matching estimators have gained widespread attention in recent years partly because they are free from calculating the integral of normalizing constant, thereby addressing the computational challenges in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Some existing works have proposed score matching estimators for point processes. However, this work demonstrates that the incompleteness of the estimators proposed in those works renders them applicable only to specific problems, and they fail for more general point processes. To address this issue, this work introduces the weighted score matching estimator to point processes. Theoretically, we prove the consistency of our estimator and establish its rate of convergence. Experimental results indicate that our estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic data and yields results consistent with MLE on real data. In contrast, existing score matching estimators fail to perform effectively. Codes are publicly available at \url{https://github.com/KenCao2007/WSM_TPP}.
Related papers
- Score Matching for Estimating Finite Point Processes [11.422667985375469]
We develop a formal framework for score matching on finite point processes via Janossy measures.<n>We introduce an (autoregressive) weighted score-matching estimator, whose statistical properties we analyze in classical parametric settings.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-12-04T09:46:48Z) - DDPM Score Matching and Distribution Learning [24.341062891949953]
Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs)
This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to tasks of parameter and density estimation.
We provide minimax rates for density estimation over H" classes and a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-07T15:07:19Z) - A Statistical Analysis for Per-Instance Evaluation of Stochastic Optimizers: How Many Repeats Are Enough? [0.8575004906002217]
We present a statistical analysis of the common metrics, and develop guidelines for experiment design.
We derive a lower bound on the number of repeats in order to guarantee achieving a given accuracy in the metrics.
We propose an algorithm to adaptively adjust the number of repeats needed to ensure the accuracy of the evaluated metric.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-03-20T17:38:50Z) - Robust Score Matching [1.2835555561822447]
We develop a robust score matching procedure that yields consistent parameter estimates in settings where the observed data has been contaminated.
A special appeal of the proposed method is that it retains convexity in exponential family models.
Support recovery is studied in numerical experiments and on a precipitation dataset.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-01-09T09:46:27Z) - SureMap: Simultaneous Mean Estimation for Single-Task and Multi-Task Disaggregated Evaluation [75.56845750400116]
Disaggregated evaluation -- estimation of performance of a machine learning model on different subpopulations -- is a core task when assessing performance and group-fairness of AI systems.
We develop SureMap that has high estimation accuracy for both multi-task and single-task disaggregated evaluations of blackbox models.
Our method combines maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation using a well-chosen prior together with cross-validation-free tuning via Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE)
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-14T17:53:35Z) - Semiparametric conformal prediction [79.6147286161434]
Risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables.
We treat the scores as random vectors and aim to construct the prediction set accounting for their joint correlation structure.
We report desired coverage and competitive efficiency on a range of real-world regression problems.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-04T14:29:02Z) - The Challenges of Hyperparameter Tuning for Accurate Causal Effect Estimation [2.43420394129881]
Many ML methods (causal estimators') have been proposed for causal inference.<n>For non-causal predictive tasks, there is a consensus on the choice of tuning metrics, making it simple to compare models.<n>For causal inference tasks, such a consensus is yet to be reached, making any comparison of causal models difficult.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-03-02T17:03:02Z) - Score Matching for Truncated Density Estimation on a Manifold [6.53626518989653]
Recent methods propose to use score matching for truncated density estimation.
We present a novel extension of truncated score matching to a Riemannian manifold with boundary.
In simulated data experiments, our score matching estimator is able to approximate the true parameter values with a low estimation error.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-06-29T14:14:49Z) - Learning to Estimate Without Bias [57.82628598276623]
Gauss theorem states that the weighted least squares estimator is a linear minimum variance unbiased estimation (MVUE) in linear models.
In this paper, we take a first step towards extending this result to non linear settings via deep learning with bias constraints.
A second motivation to BCE is in applications where multiple estimates of the same unknown are averaged for improved performance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-10-24T10:23:51Z) - Deep Reinforcement Learning at the Edge of the Statistical Precipice [31.178451465925555]
We argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field.
We advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-08-30T14:23:48Z) - Control Variates for Slate Off-Policy Evaluation [112.35528337130118]
We study the problem of off-policy evaluation from batched contextual bandit data with multidimensional actions.
We obtain new estimators with risk improvement guarantees over both the PI and self-normalized PI estimators.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-06-15T06:59:53Z) - Deconfounding Scores: Feature Representations for Causal Effect
Estimation with Weak Overlap [140.98628848491146]
We introduce deconfounding scores, which induce better overlap without biasing the target of estimation.
We show that deconfounding scores satisfy a zero-covariance condition that is identifiable in observed data.
In particular, we show that this technique could be an attractive alternative to standard regularizations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-04-12T18:50:11Z) - Beyond Marginal Uncertainty: How Accurately can Bayesian Regression
Models Estimate Posterior Predictive Correlations? [13.127549105535623]
It is often more useful to estimate predictive correlations between the function values at different input locations.
We first consider a downstream task which depends on posterior predictive correlations: transductive active learning (TAL)
Since TAL is too expensive and indirect to guide development of algorithms, we introduce two metrics which more directly evaluate the predictive correlations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-11-06T03:48:59Z) - Nonparametric Score Estimators [49.42469547970041]
Estimating the score from a set of samples generated by an unknown distribution is a fundamental task in inference and learning of probabilistic models.
We provide a unifying view of these estimators under the framework of regularized nonparametric regression.
We propose score estimators based on iterative regularization that enjoy computational benefits from curl-free kernels and fast convergence.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-05-20T15:01:03Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.