Semiparametric conformal prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02114v1
• Date: Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:29:02 GMT
• Title: Semiparametric conformal prediction
• Authors: Ji Won Park, Robert Tibshirani, Kyunghyun Cho,
• Abstract summary: Risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables. We treat the scores as random vectors and aim to construct the prediction set accounting for their joint correlation structure. We report desired coverage and competitive efficiency on a range of real-world regression problems.
• Score: 79.6147286161434
• License:
• Abstract: Many risk-sensitive applications require well-calibrated prediction sets over multiple, potentially correlated target variables, for which the prediction algorithm may report correlated non-conformity scores. In this work, we treat the scores as random vectors and aim to construct the prediction set accounting for their joint correlation structure. Drawing from the rich literature on multivariate quantiles and semiparametric statistics, we propose an algorithm to estimate the $1-\alpha$ quantile of the scores, where $\alpha$ is the user-specified miscoverage rate. In particular, we flexibly estimate the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scores using nonparametric vine copulas and improve the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate using its influence function. The vine decomposition allows our method to scale well to a large number of targets. We report desired coverage and competitive efficiency on a range of real-world regression problems, including those with missing-at-random labels in the calibration set.

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