Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrated uncertainty quantification

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2411.07853v2
• Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2024 08:36:29 GMT
• Title: Evidential time-to-event prediction with calibrated uncertainty quantification
• Authors: Ling Huang, Yucheng Xing, Swapnil Mishra, Thierry Denoeux, Mengling Feng,
• Abstract summary: Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations.<n>We propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction.<n>We show that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
• Score: 12.446406577462069
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. The proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. The model is trained by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function accounting for data censoring. Experimental evaluations using simulated datasets with different data distributions and censoring conditions, as well as real-world datasets across diverse clinical applications, demonstrate that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.

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