Tailored Forecasting from Short Time Series via Meta-learning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16325v1
• Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2025 18:58:04 GMT
• Title: Tailored Forecasting from Short Time Series via Meta-learning
• Authors: Declan A. Norton, Edward Ott, Andrew Pomerance, Brian Hunt, Michelle Girvan,
• Abstract summary: We introduce Meta-learning for Tailored Forecasting from Related Time Series (METAFORS) By leveraging a library of models trained on related systems, METAFORS builds tailored models to forecast system evolution with limited data. We demonstrate METAFORS' ability to predict both short-term dynamics and long-term statistics, even when test and related systems exhibit significantly different behaviors.
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• Abstract: Machine learning (ML) models can be effective for forecasting the dynamics of unknown systems from time-series data, but they often require large amounts of data and struggle to generalize across systems with varying dynamics. Combined, these issues make forecasting from short time series particularly challenging. To address this problem, we introduce Meta-learning for Tailored Forecasting from Related Time Series (METAFORS), which uses related systems with longer time-series data to supplement limited data from the system of interest. By leveraging a library of models trained on related systems, METAFORS builds tailored models to forecast system evolution with limited data. Using a reservoir computing implementation and testing on simulated chaotic systems, we demonstrate METAFORS' ability to predict both short-term dynamics and long-term statistics, even when test and related systems exhibit significantly different behaviors and the available data are scarce, highlighting its robustness and versatility in data-limited scenarios.

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