Probing LLM World Models: Enhancing Guesstimation with Wisdom of Crowds Decoding

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2501.17310v2
• Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2025 07:15:04 GMT
• Title: Probing LLM World Models: Enhancing Guesstimation with Wisdom of Crowds Decoding
• Abstract summary: We introduce a novel guesstimation dataset, MARBLES.<n>This dataset requires one to estimate how many items can fit into containers.<n>We propose WOC decoding'' strategy for LLM guesstimation.
• Score: 42.35821271298182
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Guesstimation, the task of making approximate quantity estimates, is a common real-world challenge. However, it has been largely overlooked in large language models (LLMs) and vision language models (VLMs) research. We introduce a novel guesstimation dataset, MARBLES. This dataset requires one to estimate how many items (e.g., marbles) can fit into containers (e.g., a one-cup measuring cup), both with and without accompanying images. Inspired by the social science concept of the ``Wisdom of Crowds'' (WOC) - taking the median from estimates from a crowd), which has proven effective in guesstimation, we propose ``WOC decoding'' strategy for LLM guesstimation. We show that LLMs/VLMs perform well on guesstimation, suggesting that they possess some level of a "world model" necessary for guesstimation. Moreover, similar to human performance, the WOC decoding method improves LLM/VLM guesstimation accuracy. Furthermore, the inclusion of images in the multimodal condition enhances model performance. These results highlight the value of WOC decoding strategy for LLMs/VLMs and position guesstimation as a probe for evaluating LLMs/VLMs' world model. As LLMs' world model is a fundamental prerequisite for many real-world tasks, e.g., human-AI teaming, our findings have broad implications for the AI community.

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