Elite Polarization in European Parliamentary Speeches: a Novel Measurement Approach Using Large Language Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2507.06658v1
• Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2025 08:44:29 GMT
• Title: Elite Polarization in European Parliamentary Speeches: a Novel Measurement Approach Using Large Language Models
• Authors: Gennadii Iakovlev,
• Abstract summary: This project introduces a new measure of elite polarization via actor and subject detection using artificial intelligence.<n>I identify when politicians mention one another in parliamentary speeches, note who is speaking and who is being addressed, and assess the emotional temperature behind these evaluations.<n>This maps how elites evaluate their various out-parties, allowing us to create an index of mutual out-party hostility, that is, elite polarization.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: This project introduces a new measure of elite polarization via actor and subject detection using artificial intelligence. I identify when politicians mention one another in parliamentary speeches, note who is speaking and who is being addressed, and assess the emotional temperature behind these evaluations. This maps how elites evaluate their various out-parties, allowing us to create an index of mutual out-party hostility, that is, elite polarization. While I analyzed polarization data over the past four decades for the UK, and two decades for Hungary and Italy, my approach lays the groundwork for a twenty-year, EU-wide time-series dataset on elite polarization. I obtain the results that can be aggregated by party and quarter. The resulting index demonstrates a good face validity: it reacts to events such as electoral campaigns, country- and party-level crises, and to parties losing and assuming power.

Related papers

• Geopolitical biases in LLMs: what are the "good" and the "bad" countries according to contemporary language models [52.00270888041742]
  We introduce a novel dataset with neutral event descriptions and contrasting viewpoints from different countries.<n>Our findings show significant geopolitical biases, with models favoring specific national narratives.<n>Simple debiasing prompts had a limited effect on reducing these biases.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2025-06-07T10:45:17Z)
• Affective Polarization Amongst Swedish Politicians [0.0]
  This study investigates affective polarization among Swedish politicians on Twitter from 2021 to 2023.<n>Negative partisanship becomes significantly more dominant when the in-group is defined at the party level.<n>Negative partisanship also proves to be a strategic choice for online visibility, attracting 3.18 more likes and 1.69 more retweets on average.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2025-03-20T14:40:48Z)
• On the Use of Proxies in Political Ad Targeting [49.61009579554272]
  We show that major political advertisers circumvented mitigations by targeting proxy attributes. Our findings have crucial implications for the ongoing discussion on the regulation of political advertising.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-10-18T17:15:13Z)
• Representation Bias in Political Sample Simulations with Large Language Models [54.48283690603358]
  This study seeks to identify and quantify biases in simulating political samples with Large Language Models. Using the GPT-3.5-Turbo model, we leverage data from the American National Election Studies, German Longitudinal Election Study, Zuobiao dataset, and China Family Panel Studies.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2024-07-16T05:52:26Z)
• Mapping Election Polarization and Competitiveness using Election Results [0.18641315013048293]
  We argue that voting patterns can lead to mapping effective proxies of citizen divisions on election day. This paper perspectives two complementary concepts, Election Polarization (EP) and Election Competitiveness (EC) We present an approach that relies solely on election data and validate it using synthetic and real-world election data across 13 countries in the Eurozone, North America, Latin America, and New Zealand.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-08-16T18:06:00Z)
• The Face of Populism: Examining Differences in Facial Emotional Expressions of Political Leaders Using Machine Learning [50.24983453990065]
  We use a deep-learning approach to process a sample of 220 YouTube videos of political leaders from 15 different countries.<n>We observe statistically significant differences in the average score of negative emotions between groups of leaders with varying degrees of populist rhetoric.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-04-19T18:32:49Z)
• Understanding Political Polarisation using Language Models: A dataset and method [18.40891764492186]
  This paper aims to analyze political polarization in US political system using Language Models. Our main contributions are a dataset extracted from Wikipedia that spans the past 120 years.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-01-02T22:15:04Z)
• Design and analysis of tweet-based election models for the 2021 Mexican legislative election [55.41644538483948]
  We use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2023-01-02T12:40:05Z)
• Detecting Political Biases of Named Entities and Hashtags on Twitter [28.02430167720734]
  Ideological divisions in the United States have become increasingly prominent in daily communication. By detecting political biases in a corpus of text, one can attempt to describe and discern the polarity of that text. We propose the Polarity-aware Embedding Multi-task learning model.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2022-09-16T18:00:13Z)
• Reaching the bubble may not be enough: news media role in online political polarization [58.720142291102135]
  A way of reducing polarization would be by distributing cross-partisan news among individuals with distinct political orientations. This study investigates whether this holds in the context of nationwide elections in Brazil and Canada.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-09-18T11:34:04Z)
• Exploring Polarization of Users Behavior on Twitter During the 2019 South American Protests [15.065938163384235]
  We explore polarization on Twitter in a different context, namely the protest that paralyzed several countries in the South American region in 2019. By leveraging users' endorsement of politicians' tweets and hashtag campaigns with defined stances towards the protest (for or against), we construct a weakly labeled stance dataset with millions of users. We find empirical evidence of the "filter bubble" phenomenon during the event, as we not only show that the user bases are homogeneous in terms of stance, but the probability that a user transitions from media of different clusters is low.
  arXiv  Detail & Related papers  (2021-04-05T07:13:18Z)

This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.

This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.