Incorporating structural uncertainty in causal decision making

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2507.23495v1
• Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2025 12:29:49 GMT
• Title: Incorporating structural uncertainty in causal decision making
• Authors: Maurits Kaptein,
• Abstract summary: We argue that model averaging over competing causal structures is beneficial when structural uncertainty is moderate to high.<n>We prove optimality results of our suggested methodological solution under regularity conditions.<n>Our framework complements existing robust causal inference approaches by addressing a distinct source of uncertainty typically overlooked in practice.
• Score: 1.006218778776515
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Practitioners making decisions based on causal effects typically ignore structural uncertainty. We analyze when this uncertainty is consequential enough to warrant methodological solutions (Bayesian model averaging over competing causal structures). Focusing on bivariate relationships ($X \rightarrow Y$ vs. $X \leftarrow Y$), we establish that model averaging is beneficial when: (1) structural uncertainty is moderate to high, (2) causal effects differ substantially between structures, and (3) loss functions are sufficiently sensitive to the size of the causal effect. We prove optimality results of our suggested methodological solution under regularity conditions and demonstrate through simulations that modern causal discovery methods can provide, within limits, the necessary quantification. Our framework complements existing robust causal inference approaches by addressing a distinct source of uncertainty typically overlooked in practice.

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