FTSCommDetector: Discovering Behavioral Communities through Temporal Synchronization
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00014v2
- Date: Thu, 02 Oct 2025 04:20:45 GMT
- Title: FTSCommDetector: Discovering Behavioral Communities through Temporal Synchronization
- Authors: Tianyang Luo, Xikun Zhang, Dongjin Song,
- Abstract summary: Traditional community detection methods fail to capture synchronization-desynchronization patterns where entities move independently yet align during critical moments.<n>We introduce FTSCommDetector, implementing our Temporal Coherence Architecture (TCA) to discover similar and dissimilar communities.<n>As a result, FTSCommDetector achieves consistent improvements across four diverse financial markets.
- Score: 15.690768429709811
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Why do trillion-dollar tech giants AAPL and MSFT diverge into different response patterns during market disruptions despite identical sector classifications? This paradox reveals a fundamental limitation: traditional community detection methods fail to capture synchronization-desynchronization patterns where entities move independently yet align during critical moments. To this end, we introduce FTSCommDetector, implementing our Temporal Coherence Architecture (TCA) to discover similar and dissimilar communities in continuous multivariate time series. Unlike existing methods that process each timestamp independently, causing unstable community assignments and missing evolving relationships, our approach maintains coherence through dual-scale encoding and static topology with dynamic attention. Furthermore, we establish information-theoretic foundations demonstrating how scale separation maximizes complementary information and introduce Normalized Temporal Profiles (NTP) for scale-invariant evaluation. As a result, FTSCommDetector achieves consistent improvements across four diverse financial markets (SP100, SP500, SP1000, Nikkei 225), with gains ranging from 3.5% to 11.1% over the strongest baselines. The method demonstrates remarkable robustness with only 2% performance variation across window sizes from 60 to 120 days, making dataset-specific tuning unnecessary, providing practical insights for portfolio construction and risk management.
Related papers
- Contextual and Seasonal LSTMs for Time Series Anomaly Detection [49.50689313712684]
We propose a novel prediction-based framework named Contextual and Seasonal LSTMs (CS-LSTMs)<n>CS-LSTMs are built upon a noise decomposition strategy and jointly leverage contextual dependencies and seasonal patterns.<n>They consistently outperform state-of-the-art methods, highlighting their effectiveness and practical value in robust time series anomaly detection.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-02-10T11:46:15Z) - UniDiff: A Unified Diffusion Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting [90.47915032778366]
We propose UniDiff, a unified diffusion framework for multimodal time series forecasting.<n>At its core lies a unified and parallel fusion module, where a single cross-attention mechanism integrates structural information from timestamps and semantic context from texts.<n>Experiments on real-world benchmark datasets across eight domains demonstrate that the proposed UniDiff model achieves state-of-the-art performance.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-12-08T05:36:14Z) - STaTS: Structure-Aware Temporal Sequence Summarization via Statistical Window Merging [7.085954928597584]
Time series data often contain latent temporal structure, transitions between locally stationary regimes, repeated motifs, and bursts of variability.<n>We propose STaTS, a lightweight, unsupervised framework for Structure-Aware Temporal Summarization.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-10T17:51:47Z) - T3Time: Tri-Modal Time Series Forecasting via Adaptive Multi-Head Alignment and Residual Fusion [0.4915744683251151]
T3Time is a novel trimodal framework consisting of time, spectral, and prompt branches.<n>It learns prioritization between temporal and spectral features based on the prediction horizon.<n>Our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-08-06T09:31:44Z) - Revitalizing Canonical Pre-Alignment for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting [17.046106977768215]
We propose KAFNet, a compact architecture grounded in Canonical Pre-Alignment (CPA) for IMTS forecasting.<n>KAFNet achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, with a 7.2$times$ parameter reduction and a 8.4$times$ training-inference acceleration.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-08-04T01:07:24Z) - STSA: Federated Class-Incremental Learning via Spatial-Temporal Statistics Aggregation [64.48462746540156]
Federated Class-Incremental Learning (FCIL) enables Class-Incremental Learning from distributed data.<n>We propose a novel approach to aggregate feature statistics both spatially (across clients) and temporally (across stages)<n>We show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art FCIL methods in terms of performance, flexibility, and both communication and efficiency.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-02T05:14:57Z) - Diffeomorphic Temporal Alignment Nets for Time-series Joint Alignment and Averaging [8.14908648005543]
In time-series analysis, nonlinear temporal misalignment remains a pivotal challenge that forestalls even simple averaging.<n>DTAN predicts and applies diffeomorphic transformations in an input-dependent manner, thus facilitating the joint alignment (JA) and averaging of time-series ensembles.<n>We extend our framework to incorporate multi-task learning (MT-DTAN), enabling simultaneous timeseries alignment and classification.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-10T15:55:08Z) - TiVaT: A Transformer with a Single Unified Mechanism for Capturing Asynchronous Dependencies in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting [4.733959271565453]
TiVaT is a novel architecture incorporating a single unified module, a Joint-Axis (JA) attention module.<n>The JA attention module dynamically selects relevant features to particularly capture asynchronous interactions.<n>Extensive experiments demonstrate TiVaT's overall performance across diverse datasets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-02T13:24:24Z) - PeFAD: A Parameter-Efficient Federated Framework for Time Series Anomaly Detection [51.20479454379662]
We propose a.
Federated Anomaly Detection framework named PeFAD with the increasing privacy concerns.
We conduct extensive evaluations on four real datasets, where PeFAD outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines by up to 28.74%.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-04T13:51:08Z) - SOFTS: Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Series-Core Fusion [59.96233305733875]
Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare.
Several methods utilize mechanisms like attention or mixer to address this by capturing channel correlations.
This paper presents an efficient-based model, the Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS)
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-04-22T14:06:35Z) - Fully-Connected Spatial-Temporal Graph for Multivariate Time-Series Data [50.84488941336865]
We propose a novel method called Fully- Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network (FC-STGNN)
For graph construction, we design a decay graph to connect sensors across all timestamps based on their temporal distances.
For graph convolution, we devise FC graph convolution with a moving-pooling GNN layer to effectively capture the ST dependencies for learning effective representations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-09-11T08:44:07Z) - Robust Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships in Lagged Multi-Factor Models [61.10851158749843]
Key insights can be obtained by discovering lead-lag relationships inherent in the data.
We develop a clustering-driven methodology for robust detection of lead-lag relationships in lagged multi-factor models.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-05-11T10:30:35Z) - Efficient pattern-based anomaly detection in a network of multivariate
devices [0.17188280334580192]
We propose a scalable approach to detect anomalies using a two-step approach.
First, we recover relations between entities in the network, since relations are often dynamic in nature and caused by an unknown underlying process.
Next, we report anomalies based on an embedding of sequential patterns.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-05-07T16:05:30Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.