Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference for Reliable LLM Responses
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01285v1
- Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2026 15:34:45 GMT
- Title: Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference for Reliable LLM Responses
- Authors: Kangjun Noh, Seongchan Lee, Ilmun Kim, Kyungwoo Song,
- Abstract summary: We reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores.<n>Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores.<n>Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines.
- Score: 18.60553322553765
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI
Related papers
- Claim Automation using Large Language Model [0.0]
Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance on general-purpose language tasks, but their deployment in regulated and data-sensitive domains, including insurance, remains limited.<n>We propose a locally deployed governance-aware language modeling component that generates structured corrective-action recommendations from unstructured claim narratives.<n>We fine-tune pretrained LLMs using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), scoping the model to an initial decision module within the claim processing pipeline to speed up claim adjusters' decisions.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-02-18T20:01:12Z) - Towards Comprehensive Stage-wise Benchmarking of Large Language Models in Fact-Checking [64.97768177044355]
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world fact-checking systems.<n>We present FactArena, a fully automated arena-style evaluation framework.<n>Our analyses reveal significant discrepancies between static claim-verification accuracy and end-to-end fact-checking competence.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-01-06T02:51:56Z) - MMDCP: A Distribution-free Approach to Outlier Detection and Classification with Coverage Guarantees and SCW-FDR Control [6.429952624399788]
We propose a unified framework for multi-class classification and outlier detection under label shift.<n>The Modified Mahalanobis Distance Conformal Prediction (MMDCP) combines class-specific distance measures with full conformal prediction to construct a score function.<n>We provide the first theoretical characterization of the gap between oracle and empirical conformal $p$-values, which ensures valid coverage and effective control of the class-wise false discovery rate (CW-FDR)
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-11-15T03:48:44Z) - Robust Uncertainty Quantification for Self-Evolving Large Language Models via Continual Domain Pretraining [7.344577590113121]
Conformal Prediction (CP) has shown promise in offering correctness guarantees for large language models.<n>We introduce an adaptive rejection and non-exchangeable CP framework.<n>Our framework enhances both the effectiveness and reliability of CP under CDP scenarios.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-10-27T02:15:51Z) - Unsupervised Conformal Inference: Bootstrapping and Alignment to Control LLM Uncertainty [49.19257648205146]
We propose an unsupervised conformal inference framework for generation.<n>Our gates achieve close-to-nominal coverage and provide tighter, more stable thresholds than split UCP.<n>The result is a label-free, API-compatible gate for test-time filtering.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-09-26T23:40:47Z) - CompassVerifier: A Unified and Robust Verifier for LLMs Evaluation and Outcome Reward [50.97588334916863]
We develop CompassVerifier, an accurate and robust lightweight verifier model for evaluation and outcome reward.<n>It demonstrates multi-domain competency spanning math, knowledge, and diverse reasoning tasks, with the capability to process various answer types.<n>We introduce VerifierBench benchmark comprising model outputs collected from multiple data sources, augmented through manual analysis of metaerror patterns to enhance CompassVerifier.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-08-05T17:55:24Z) - COIN: Uncertainty-Guarding Selective Question Answering for Foundation Models with Provable Risk Guarantees [51.5976496056012]
COIN is an uncertainty-guarding selection framework that calibrates statistically valid thresholds to filter a single generated answer per question.<n>COIN estimates the empirical error rate on a calibration set and applies confidence interval methods to establish a high-probability upper bound on the true error rate.<n>We demonstrate COIN's robustness in risk control, strong test-time power in retaining admissible answers, and predictive efficiency under limited calibration data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-06-25T07:04:49Z) - Noise-Adaptive Conformal Classification with Marginal Coverage [53.74125453366155]
We introduce an adaptive conformal inference method capable of efficiently handling deviations from exchangeability caused by random label noise.<n>We validate our method through extensive numerical experiments demonstrating its effectiveness on synthetic and real data sets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-01-29T23:55:23Z) - Cycles of Thought: Measuring LLM Confidence through Stable Explanations [53.15438489398938]
Large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks, but their overconfidence in incorrect responses is still a well-documented failure mode.
We propose a framework for measuring an LLM's uncertainty with respect to the distribution of generated explanations for an answer.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-05T16:35:30Z) - Multicalibration for Confidence Scoring in LLMs [6.948522445499497]
This paper proposes the use of "multicalibration" to yield interpretable and reliable confidence scores for outputs generated by large language models (LLMs)
We show how to form groupings for prompt/completion pairs that are correlated with the probability of correctness via two techniques: clustering within an embedding space, and "self-annotation"
We show how our techniques can yield confidence scores that provide substantial improvements in fine-grained measures of both calibration and accuracy compared to existing methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-04-06T17:33:37Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.