Interpretable PM2.5 Forecasting for Urban Air Quality: A Comparative Study of Operational Time-Series Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.25495v1
• Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2026 14:35:43 GMT
• Title: Interpretable PM2.5 Forecasting for Urban Air Quality: A Comparative Study of Operational Time-Series Models
• Abstract summary: This study investigates whether lightweight and interpretable forecasting approaches can provide competitive performance for hourly PM2.5 prediction in Beijing, China.<n>Three forecasting families were evaluated: SARIMAX, Facebook Prophet, and NeuralProphet.<n>Results showed clear differences in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency.
• Score: 1.7985445077416795
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Accurate short-term air-quality forecasting is essential for public health protection and urban management, yet many recent forecasting frameworks rely on complex, data-intensive, and computationally demanding models. This study investigates whether lightweight and interpretable forecasting approaches can provide competitive performance for hourly PM2.5 prediction in Beijing, China. Using multi-year pollutant and meteorological time-series data, we developed a leakage-aware forecasting workflow that combined chronological data partitioning, preprocessing, feature selection, and exogenous-driver modeling under the Perfect Prognosis setting. Three forecasting families were evaluated: SARIMAX, Facebook Prophet, and NeuralProphet. To assess practical deployment behavior, the models were tested under two adaptive regimes: weekly walk-forward refitting and frozen forecasting with online residual correction. Results showed clear differences in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Under walk-forward refitting, Facebook Prophet achieved the strongest completed performance, with an MAE of $37.61$ and an RMSE of $50.10$, while also requiring substantially less execution time than NeuralProphet. In the frozen-model regime, online residual correction improved Facebook Prophet and SARIMAX, with corrected SARIMAX yielding the lowest overall error (MAE $32.50$; RMSE $46.85$). NeuralProphet remained less accurate and less stable across both regimes, and residual correction did not improve its forecasts. Notably, corrected Facebook Prophet reached nearly the same error as its walk-forward counterpart while reducing runtime from $15$ min $21.91$ sec to $46.60$ sec. These findings show that lightweight additive forecasting strategies can remain highly competitive for urban air-quality prediction, offering a practical balance between accuracy, interpretability, ...

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