Data is All You Need: Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) Model

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.27909v1
• Date: Sun, 29 Mar 2026 23:33:24 GMT
• Title: Data is All You Need: Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) Model
• Abstract summary: This paper introduces a new car-following modeling category called the empirical probabilistic paradigm.<n>Within this paradigm, we propose the Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) model, which represents state transitions as a Markov process.<n> Evaluation of the MC-CF model trained on the Open Motion dataset (WOMD) demonstrates that its variants significantly outperform physics-based models.
• Score: 3.1154297715556964
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Car-following behavior is fundamental to traffic flow theory, yet traditional models often fail to capture the stochasticity of naturalistic driving. This paper introduces a new car-following modeling category called the empirical probabilistic paradigm, which bypasses conventional parametric assumptions. Within this paradigm, we propose the Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) model, which represents state transitions as a Markov process and predicts behavior by randomly sampling accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation of the MC-CF model trained on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrates that its variants significantly outperform physics-based models including IDM, Gipps, FVDM, and SIDM in both one-step and open-loop trajectory prediction accuracy. Statistical analysis of transition probabilities confirms that the model-generated trajectories are indistinguishable from real-world behavior, successfully reproducing the probabilistic structure of naturalistic driving across all interaction types. Zero-shot generalization on the Naturalistic Phoenix (PHX) dataset further confirms the model's robustness. Finally, microscopic ring road simulations validate the framework's scalability. By incrementally integrating unconstrained free-flow trajectories and high-speed freeway data (TGSIM) alongside a conservative inference strategy, the model drastically reduces collisions, achieving zero crashes in multiple equilibrium and shockwave scenarios, while successfully reproducing naturalistic and stochastic shockwave propagation. Overall, the proposed MC-CF model provides a robust, scalable, and calibration-free foundation for high-fidelity stochastic traffic modeling, uniquely suited for the data-rich future of intelligent transportation.

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