Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02038v1
• Date: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:28:23 GMT
• Title: Uncertainty-Aware Graph Neural Reconstruction of Urban Temperature Fields from Sparse Sensors under Deployment Constraints
• Abstract summary: This study proposes an uncertainty-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for reconstructing daily maximum temperature fields from sparse sensors.<n>The framework is evaluated over a Montreal-area polygon using Daymet v4.1 daily temperature data (1 km resolution) under a strict temporal hold-out protocol.<n>Across sensor budgets (10-40 sensors), the proposed GNN consistently outperforms inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Abstract: Reconstructing spatially continuous daily temperature fields from sparse observations is important for urban climate monitoring and heat-risk analysis, but practical deployments are limited by sensor budgets and spacing constraints. This study proposes an uncertainty-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for reconstructing daily maximum temperature fields from sparse sensors while supporting distance-constrained sensor placement and probabilistic exceedance mapping. The model predicts both the temperature field and a spatially varying predictive uncertainty field using a graph-attention-based mean-residual architecture trained with a Gaussian negative log-likelihood. Sensor placement is addressed using a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with QR factorization (POD-QR) strategy with a 4 km minimum inter-sensor distance constraint and is compared with random feasible placement and farthest-point sampling. The framework is evaluated over a Montreal-area polygon using Daymet v4.1 daily temperature data (1 km resolution) under a strict temporal hold-out protocol (training: 2020-2023; testing: 2024). Across sensor budgets (10-40 sensors), the proposed GNN consistently outperforms inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging in RMSE and MAE on unobserved nodes. Sensor-placement effects are most pronounced at low budgets and diminish at higher budgets, with a practical saturation regime emerging around 30 sensors under the imposed spacing constraint. Probabilistic evaluation further shows improved uncertainty calibration with increasing sensor density and a better sharpness-calibration trade-off than kriging. These results support the proposed framework as an effective tool for uncertainty-aware temperature field reconstruction and decision-oriented heat-risk mapping.

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