Optimal Inference with Black-box Predictions

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10155v1
• Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2026 19:23:22 GMT
• Title: Optimal Inference with Black-box Predictions
• Abstract summary: Powerful black-box predictive models have motivated many proposals for combining observed data with predictions to perform valid statistical inference.<n>Despite this progress, the field lacks a unifying principle that explains how hypothesis tests should integrate data and predictions in a way that is both valid and efficient.
• Score: 8.278815123017116
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Powerful black-box predictive models have motivated many proposals for combining observed data with predictions to perform valid statistical inference. Despite this progress, the field lacks a unifying principle that explains how hypothesis tests should integrate data and predictions in a way that is both valid and efficient. In this work, we address this gap in the high-dimensional Gaussian sequence model. We characterize the information-theoretic limits of inference with black-box predictions when their accuracies are known and, for orthogonal predictions, when they are unknown. Building on these characterizations, we develop practical hypothesis tests that adapt to the unknown accuracies of the predictions while benefiting from strong alignment among them.

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