A Physiology-Driven Computational Model for Post-Cardiac Arrest Outcome Prediction

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03309v2
• Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2020 20:33:10 GMT
• Title: A Physiology-Driven Computational Model for Post-Cardiac Arrest Outcome Prediction
• Authors: Han B. Kim, Hieu Nguyen, Qingchu Jin, Sharmila Tamby, Tatiana Gelaf Romer, Eric Sung, Ran Liu, Joseph Greenstein, Jose I. Suarez, Christian Storm, Raimond Winslow, Robert D. Stevens
• Abstract summary: The aim of this study was to build computational models to predict post-CA outcome. We hypothesized that model performance could be enhanced by integrating physiological time series (PTS) data and by training machine learning (ML) classifiers. Results attest to the effectiveness of ML models for post-CA predictive modeling and suggest that PTS recorded in very early phase after resuscitation encode short-term outcome probabilities.
• Score: 0.7930054475711718
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest (CA) face a high risk of neurological disability and death, however pragmatic methods are lacking for accurate and reliable prognostication. The aim of this study was to build computational models to predict post-CA outcome by leveraging high-dimensional patient data available early after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). We hypothesized that model performance could be enhanced by integrating physiological time series (PTS) data and by training machine learning (ML) classifiers. We compared three models integrating features extracted from the electronic health records (EHR) alone, features derived from PTS collected in the first 24hrs after ICU admission (PTS24), and models integrating PTS24 and EHR. Outcomes of interest were survival and neurological outcome at ICU discharge. Combined EHR-PTS24 models had higher discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) than models which used either EHR or PTS24 alone, for the prediction of survival (AUC 0.85, 0.80 and 0.68 respectively) and neurological outcome (0.87, 0.83 and 0.78). The best ML classifier achieved higher discrimination than the reference logistic regression model (APACHE III) for survival (AUC 0.85 vs 0.70) and neurological outcome prediction (AUC 0.87 vs 0.75). Feature analysis revealed previously unknown factors to be associated with post-CA recovery. Results attest to the effectiveness of ML models for post-CA predictive modeling and suggest that PTS recorded in very early phase after resuscitation encode short-term outcome probabilities.

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