Selective Dyna-style Planning Under Limited Model Capacity
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.02418v3
- Date: Sun, 7 Mar 2021 21:52:28 GMT
- Title: Selective Dyna-style Planning Under Limited Model Capacity
- Authors: Zaheer Abbas, Samuel Sokota, Erin J. Talvitie, Martha White
- Abstract summary: In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress.
In this paper, we investigate the idea of using an imperfect model selectively.
The agent should plan in parts of the state space where the model would be helpful but refrain from using the model where it would be harmful.
- Score: 26.63876180969654
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of
the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a
model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for
planning. In this paper, we investigate the idea of using an imperfect model
selectively. The agent should plan in parts of the state space where the model
would be helpful but refrain from using the model where it would be harmful. An
effective selective planning mechanism requires estimating predictive
uncertainty, which arises out of aleatoric uncertainty, parameter uncertainty,
and model inadequacy, among other sources. Prior work has focused on parameter
uncertainty for selective planning. In this work, we emphasize the importance
of model inadequacy. We show that heteroscedastic regression can signal
predictive uncertainty arising from model inadequacy that is complementary to
that which is detected by methods designed for parameter uncertainty,
indicating that considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy may
be a more promising direction for effective selective planning than either in
isolation.
Related papers
- A Probabilistic Perspective on Unlearning and Alignment for Large Language Models [48.96686419141881]
We introduce the first formal probabilistic evaluation framework in Large Language Models (LLMs)
We derive novel metrics with high-probability guarantees concerning the output distribution of a model.
Our metrics are application-independent and allow practitioners to make more reliable estimates about model capabilities before deployment.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-04T15:44:23Z) - Entropy-Based Uncertainty Modeling for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving [9.365269316773219]
We adopt a holistic approach that focuses on uncertainty quantification, decomposition, and the influence of model composition.
Our method is based on a theoretically grounded information-theoretic approach to measure uncertainty.
We conduct extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset to assess how different model architectures and configurations affect uncertainty quantification and model robustness.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-10-02T15:02:32Z) - Bounding-Box Inference for Error-Aware Model-Based Reinforcement Learning [4.185571779339683]
In model-based reinforcement learning, simulated experiences are often treated as equivalent to experience from the real environment.
We show that best results require distribution insensitive inference to estimate the uncertainty over model-based updates.
We find that bounding-box inference can reliably support effective selective planning.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-06-23T04:23:15Z) - Measuring and Modeling Uncertainty Degree for Monocular Depth Estimation [50.920911532133154]
The intrinsic ill-posedness and ordinal-sensitive nature of monocular depth estimation (MDE) models pose major challenges to the estimation of uncertainty degree.
We propose to model the uncertainty of MDE models from the perspective of the inherent probability distributions.
By simply introducing additional training regularization terms, our model, with surprisingly simple formations and without requiring extra modules or multiple inferences, can provide uncertainty estimations with state-of-the-art reliability.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-07-19T12:11:15Z) - ALUM: Adversarial Data Uncertainty Modeling from Latent Model
Uncertainty Compensation [25.67258563807856]
We propose a novel method called ALUM to handle the model uncertainty and data uncertainty in a unified scheme.
Our proposed ALUM is model-agnostic which can be easily implemented into any existing deep model with little extra overhead.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-03-29T17:24:12Z) - Uncertainty estimation of pedestrian future trajectory using Bayesian
approximation [137.00426219455116]
Under dynamic traffic scenarios, planning based on deterministic predictions is not trustworthy.
The authors propose to quantify uncertainty during forecasting using approximation which deterministic approaches fail to capture.
The effect of dropout weights and long-term prediction on future state uncertainty has been studied.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-04T04:23:38Z) - Uncertainty estimation under model misspecification in neural network
regression [3.2622301272834524]
We study the effect of the model choice on uncertainty estimation.
We highlight that under model misspecification, aleatoric uncertainty is not properly captured.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-23T10:18:41Z) - Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent
Variable Model [68.34559610536614]
We argue that the aleatoric uncertainty is an inherent attribute of the data and can only be correctly estimated with an unbiased oracle model.
We propose a new sampling and selection strategy at train time to approximate the oracle model for aleatoric uncertainty estimation.
Our results show that our solution achieves both accurate deterministic results and reliable uncertainty estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-22T08:54:10Z) - Dense Uncertainty Estimation [62.23555922631451]
In this paper, we investigate neural networks and uncertainty estimation techniques to achieve both accurate deterministic prediction and reliable uncertainty estimation.
We work on two types of uncertainty estimations solutions, namely ensemble based methods and generative model based methods, and explain their pros and cons while using them in fully/semi/weakly-supervised framework.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-10-13T01:23:48Z) - Forethought and Hindsight in Credit Assignment [62.05690959741223]
We work to understand the gains and peculiarities of planning employed as forethought via forward models or as hindsight operating with backward models.
We investigate the best use of models in planning, primarily focusing on the selection of states in which predictions should be (re)-evaluated.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-10-26T16:00:47Z) - Bootstrapped model learning and error correction for planning with
uncertainty in model-based RL [1.370633147306388]
A natural aim is to learn a model that reflects accurately the dynamics of the environment.
This paper explores the problem of model misspecification through uncertainty-aware reinforcement learning agents.
We propose a bootstrapped multi-headed neural network that learns the distribution of future states and rewards.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-04-15T15:41:21Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.