AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online
Labor Platform
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04180v1
- Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2023 10:06:34 GMT
- Title: AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online
Labor Platform
- Authors: Dandan Qiao, Huaxia Rui, and Qian Xiong
- Abstract summary: We examine the performance of a statistical AI in a human task through the lens of four factors.
We develop a simple economic model of competition to show the existence of an inflection point for each occupation.
To offer empirical evidence, we first argue that AI performance has passed the inflection point for the occupation of translation but not for the occupation of web development.
- Score: 0.13124513975412255
- License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
- Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines or software to
mimic or even surpass human intelligence in a given cognitive task. While
humans learn by both induction and deduction, the success of current AI is
rooted in induction, relying on its ability to detect statistical regularities
in task input -- an ability learnt from a vast amount of training data using
enormous computation resources. We examine the performance of such a
statistical AI in a human task through the lens of four factors, including task
learnability, statistical resource, computation resource, and learning
techniques, and then propose a three-phase visual framework to understand the
evolving relation between AI and jobs. Based on this conceptual framework, we
develop a simple economic model of competition to show the existence of an
inflection point for each occupation. Before AI performance crosses the
inflection point, human workers always benefit from an improvement in AI
performance, but after the inflection point, human workers become worse off
whenever such an improvement occurs. To offer empirical evidence, we first
argue that AI performance has passed the inflection point for the occupation of
translation but not for the occupation of web development. We then study how
the launch of ChatGPT, which led to significant improvement of AI performance
on many tasks, has affected workers in these two occupations on a large online
labor platform. Consistent with the inflection point conjecture, we find that
translators are negatively affected by the shock both in terms of the number of
accepted jobs and the earnings from those jobs, while web developers are
positively affected by the very same shock. Given the potentially large
disruption of AI on employment, more studies on more occupations using data
from different platforms are urgently needed.
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