Mitigating optimistic bias in entropic risk estimation and optimization with an application to insurance

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2409.19926v3
• Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2024 12:45:46 GMT
• Title: Mitigating optimistic bias in entropic risk estimation and optimization with an application to insurance
• Authors: Utsav Sadana, Erick Delage, Angelos Georghiou,
• Abstract summary: The entropic risk measure is widely used to account for tail risks associated with an uncertain loss. To mitigate the bias in the empirical entropic risk estimator, we propose a strongly consistent bootstrapping procedure. We show that our methods suggest a higher (and more accurate) premium to homeowners.
• Score: 5.407319151576265
• License:
• Abstract: The entropic risk measure is widely used in high-stakes decision making to account for tail risks associated with an uncertain loss. With limited data, the empirical entropic risk estimator, i.e. replacing the expectation in the entropic risk measure with a sample average, underestimates the true risk. To mitigate the bias in the empirical entropic risk estimator, we propose a strongly asymptotically consistent bootstrapping procedure. The first step of the procedure involves fitting a distribution to the data, whereas the second step estimates the bias of the empirical entropic risk estimator using bootstrapping, and corrects for it. Two methods are proposed to fit a Gaussian Mixture Model to the data, a computationally intensive one that fits the distribution of empirical entropic risk, and a simpler one with a component that fits the tail of the empirical distribution. As an application of our approach, we study distributionally robust entropic risk minimization problems with type-$\infty$ Wasserstein ambiguity set and apply our bias correction to debias validation performance. Furthermore, we propose a distributionally robust optimization model for an insurance contract design problem that takes into account the correlations of losses across households. We show that choosing regularization parameters based on the cross validation methods can result in significantly higher out-of-sample risk for the insurer if the bias in validation performance is not corrected for. This improvement in performance can be explained from the observation that our methods suggest a higher (and more accurate) premium to homeowners.

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