HopCast: Calibration of Autoregressive Dynamics Models

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16587v1
• Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2025 23:59:23 GMT
• Title: HopCast: Calibration of Autoregressive Dynamics Models
• Authors: Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Cody Fleming,
• Abstract summary: Deep learning models are often trained to approximate dynamical systems that can be modeled using differential equations. These models are optimized to predict one step ahead and produce calibrated predictions if the predictive model can quantify uncertainty. This work is the first to benchmark existing uncertainty propagation methods based on calibration errors with deep ensembles for multi-step predictions.
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• Abstract: Deep learning models are often trained to approximate dynamical systems that can be modeled using differential equations. These models are optimized to predict one step ahead and produce calibrated predictions if the predictive model can quantify uncertainty, such as deep ensembles. At inference time, multi-step predictions are generated via autoregression, which needs a sound uncertainty propagation method (e.g., Trajectory Sampling) to produce calibrated multi-step predictions. This paper introduces an approach named HopCast that uses the Modern Hopfield Network (MHN) to learn the residuals of a deterministic model that approximates the dynamical system. The MHN predicts the density of residuals based on a context vector at any timestep during autoregression. This approach produces calibrated multi-step predictions without uncertainty propagation and turns a deterministic model into a calibrated probabilistic model. This work is also the first to benchmark existing uncertainty propagation methods based on calibration errors with deep ensembles for multi-step predictions.

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