Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15850v1
• Date: Thu, 20 Mar 2025 05:04:29 GMT
• Title: Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey
• Authors: Xiaoou Liu, Tiejin Chen, Longchao Da, Chacha Chen, Zhen Lin, Hua Wei,
• Abstract summary: Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation.<n>Uncertainty quantification (UQ) enhances trustworthiness by estimating confidence in outputs, enabling risk mitigation and selective prediction.<n>We introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes UQ methods based on computational efficiency and uncertainty dimensions.
• Score: 11.737403011836532
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often produce plausible but incorrect responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) enhances trustworthiness by estimating confidence in outputs, enabling risk mitigation and selective prediction. However, traditional UQ methods struggle with LLMs due to computational constraints and decoding inconsistencies. Moreover, LLMs introduce unique uncertainty sources, such as input ambiguity, reasoning path divergence, and decoding stochasticity, that extend beyond classical aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To address this, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes UQ methods based on computational efficiency and uncertainty dimensions (input, reasoning, parameter, and prediction uncertainty). We evaluate existing techniques, assess their real-world applicability, and identify open challenges, emphasizing the need for scalable, interpretable, and robust UQ approaches to enhance LLM reliability.

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