Uncertainty-Aware Knowledge Transformers for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2507.16796v1
• Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2025 17:46:28 GMT
• Title: Uncertainty-Aware Knowledge Transformers for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
• Authors: Mian Ibad Ali Shah, Enda Barrett, Karl Mason,
• Abstract summary: This paper presents a novel framework for Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading that integrates uncertainty-aware prediction with multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL)<n>The proposed approach employs a heteroscedastic probabilistic transformer-based prediction model called Knowledge Transformer with Uncertainty (KTU) to explicitly quantify prediction uncertainty.<n> Experimental results show that the uncertainty-aware Deep Q-Network (DQN) reduces energy purchase costs by up to 5.7% without P2P trading and 3.2% with P2P trading, while increasing electricity sales revenue by 6.4% and 44.7%, respectively.
• Score: 1.2289361708127877
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: This paper presents a novel framework for Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading that integrates uncertainty-aware prediction with multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), addressing a critical gap in current literature. In contrast to previous works relying on deterministic forecasts, the proposed approach employs a heteroscedastic probabilistic transformer-based prediction model called Knowledge Transformer with Uncertainty (KTU) to explicitly quantify prediction uncertainty, which is essential for robust decision-making in the stochastic environment of P2P energy trading. The KTU model leverages domain-specific features and is trained with a custom loss function that ensures reliable probabilistic forecasts and confidence intervals for each prediction. Integrating these uncertainty-aware forecasts into the MARL framework enables agents to optimize trading strategies with a clear understanding of risk and variability. Experimental results show that the uncertainty-aware Deep Q-Network (DQN) reduces energy purchase costs by up to 5.7% without P2P trading and 3.2% with P2P trading, while increasing electricity sales revenue by 6.4% and 44.7%, respectively. Additionally, peak hour grid demand is reduced by 38.8% without P2P and 45.6% with P2P. These improvements are even more pronounced when P2P trading is enabled, highlighting the synergy between advanced forecasting and market mechanisms for resilient, economically efficient energy communities.

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