Intransitive Player Dominance and Market Inefficiency in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20454v1
• Date: Thu, 23 Oct 2025 11:41:45 GMT
• Title: Intransitive Player Dominance and Market Inefficiency in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach
• Abstract summary: We use a graph neural network approach to model intransitive player dominance in tennis matches.<n>We find that our approach is uniquely positioned to capture relational dynamics in these scenarios.<n>When selectively betting on higher intransitivity matchups with our model, we achieve significant positive returns of 3.26% ROI with Kelly staking over 1903 bets.
• Score: 2.66418345185993
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural network approach that explicitly models these intransitive relationships through temporal directed graphs, with players as nodes and their historical match outcomes as directed edges. We find the bookmaker Pinnacle Sports poorly handles matches with high intransitive complexity and posit that our graph-based approach is uniquely positioned to capture relational dynamics in these scenarios. When selectively betting on higher intransitivity matchups with our model (65.7% accuracy, 0.215 Brier Score), we achieve significant positive returns of 3.26% ROI with Kelly staking over 1903 bets, suggesting a market inefficiency in handling intransitive matchups that our approach successfully exploits.

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