From Heuristics to Analytics: Forecasting Effort and Progress in Online Learning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12788v1
• Date: Tue, 12 May 2026 22:04:06 GMT
• Title: From Heuristics to Analytics: Forecasting Effort and Progress in Online Learning
• Abstract summary: We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) logs.<n>We benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks.<n>We show that feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to baselines.
• Score: 0.7779164149675926
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible benchmark for forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions.

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