Thompson Sampling Efficiently Learns to Control Diffusion Processes
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2206.09977v1
- Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2022 19:42:49 GMT
- Title: Thompson Sampling Efficiently Learns to Control Diffusion Processes
- Authors: Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh, Mohamad Sadegh Shirani Faradonbeh,
Mohsen Bayati
- Abstract summary: We show that a Thompson sampling algorithm learns optimal actions fast, incurring only a square-root of time regret, and also stabilizes the system in a short time period.
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such result for Thompson sampling in a diffusion process control problem.
Our theoretical analysis involves characterization of a certain optimality manifold that ties the local geometry of the drift parameters to the optimal control of the diffusion process.
- Score: 4.254099382808599
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Diffusion processes that evolve according to linear stochastic differential
equations are an important family of continuous-time dynamic decision-making
models. Optimal policies are well-studied for them, under full certainty about
the drift matrices. However, little is known about data-driven control of
diffusion processes with uncertain drift matrices as conventional discrete-time
analysis techniques are not applicable. In addition, while the task can be
viewed as a reinforcement learning problem involving exploration and
exploitation trade-off, ensuring system stability is a fundamental component of
designing optimal policies. We establish that the popular Thompson sampling
algorithm learns optimal actions fast, incurring only a square-root of time
regret, and also stabilizes the system in a short time period. To the best of
our knowledge, this is the first such result for Thompson sampling in a
diffusion process control problem. We validate our theoretical results through
empirical simulations with real parameter matrices from two settings of
airplane and blood glucose control. Moreover, we observe that Thompson sampling
significantly improves (worst-case) regret, compared to the state-of-the-art
algorithms, suggesting Thompson sampling explores in a more guarded fashion.
Our theoretical analysis involves characterization of a certain optimality
manifold that ties the local geometry of the drift parameters to the optimal
control of the diffusion process. We expect this technique to be of broader
interest.
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