Goal-Oriented Time-Series Forecasting: Foundation Framework Design

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2504.17493v3
• Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2025 13:00:09 GMT
• Title: Goal-Oriented Time-Series Forecasting: Foundation Framework Design
• Authors: Luca-Andrei Fechete, Mohamed Sana, Fadhel Ayed, Nicola Piovesan, Wenjie Li, Antonio De Domenico, Tareq Si Salem,
• Abstract summary: We propose a training methodology that enables forecasting models to adapt their focus to application-specific regions of interest without retraining.<n>The approach partitions the prediction space into fine-grained segments during training, which are dynamically reweighted and aggregated to emphasize the target range specified by the application.<n> Experiments on standard benchmarks and a newly collected wireless communication dataset demonstrate that our method not only improves forecast accuracy within regions of interest but also yields measurable gains in downstream task performance.
• Score: 11.999600538978044
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Abstract: Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that enables forecasting models to adapt their focus to application-specific regions of interest at inference time, without retraining. The approach partitions the prediction space into fine-grained segments during training, which are dynamically reweighted and aggregated to emphasize the target range specified by the application. Unlike prior methods that predefine these ranges, our framework supports flexible, on-demand adjustments. Experiments on standard benchmarks and a newly collected wireless communication dataset demonstrate that our method not only improves forecast accuracy within regions of interest but also yields measurable gains in downstream task performance. These results highlight the potential for closer integration between predictive modeling and decision-making in real-world systems.

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