Adaptive Rainfall Forecasting from Multiple Geographical Models Using Matrix Profile and Ensemble Learning

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.08277v2
• Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2025 07:00:31 GMT
• Title: Adaptive Rainfall Forecasting from Multiple Geographical Models Using Matrix Profile and Ensemble Learning
• Authors: Dung T. Tran, Huyen Ngoc Huyen, Hong Nguyen, Xuan-Vu Phan, Nam-Phong Nguyen,
• Abstract summary: We propose a Matrix Profile-based Weighted Ensemble (MPWE) that captures covariant dependencies among multiple geographical model forecasts.<n>We evaluate MPWE using rainfall forecasts from eight major basins in Vietnam, spanning five forecast horizons.<n> Experimental results show that MPWE consistently achieves lower mean and standard deviation of prediction errors.
• Score: 0.9786690381850356
• License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
• Abstract: Rainfall forecasting in Vietnam is highly challenging due to its diverse climatic conditions and strong geographical variability across river basins, yet accurate and reliable forecasts are vital for flood management, hydropower operation, and disaster preparedness. In this work, we propose a Matrix Profile-based Weighted Ensemble (MPWE), a regime-switching framework that dynamically captures covariant dependencies among multiple geographical model forecasts while incorporating redundancy-aware weighting to balance contributions across models. We evaluate MPWE using rainfall forecasts from eight major basins in Vietnam, spanning five forecast horizons (1 hour and accumulated rainfall over 12, 24, 48, 72, and 84 hours). Experimental results show that MPWE consistently achieves lower mean and standard deviation of prediction errors compared to geographical models and ensemble baselines, demonstrating both improved accuracy and stability across basins and horizons.

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