Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations

• URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06124v1
• Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2026 09:54:44 GMT
• Title: Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations
• Authors: Adewumi Augustine Adepitan, Christopher J. Haruna, Morayo Ogunsina, Damilola Olawoyin Yussuf, Ayooluwatomiwa Ajiboye,
• Abstract summary: This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times.<n>It integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework.<n>It preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates.
• Score: 0.0
• License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
• Abstract: Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly naïve heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times that integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework to correct bias from shortest-path traversal-time baselines. Using an urban testbed, the pipeline: (i) constructs drivable networks from volunteered geographic data; (ii) solves Dijkstra routes minimizing edge traversal time; (iii) derives sparse operational features (signals, stops, crossings, yield, roundabouts; left/right/slight/U-turn counts); and (iv) trains a regression ensemble on limited high-quality reference times to generalize predictions beyond the training set. Out-of-sample evaluation demonstrates marked improvements over traversal-time baselines across mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error, relative bias, and explained variance, with no significant mean bias under minimally congested conditions and consistent k-fold stability indicating negligible overfitting. The resulting approach offers a practical middle ground for transportation engineering: it preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates where congestion feeds are inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, supporting planning, accessibility, and network performance applications under low-traffic operating regimes.

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